The Washington Nationals Effect

By Chris Pollay

There is nothing like playing in the same division as the worst team in baseball. In fact, playing such a team 18 or 19 times throughout the season can unquestionably be the difference between playing above .500 and playing below .500.

That has largely been the case for the top three teams in the National League East. Right now, the Philadelphia Phillies are 77-57 and leading the NL East by 6 1/2 games. A large reason for this is the team's record against the Washington Nationals. They are 10-2 against them so far this season. If you take that away from their cumulative record, guess what? They become only a 67-55 team and are likely battling for their lives for a Wildcard playoff spot.

The Florida Marlins, second in the division currently with a 72-65 record, are 11-4 against the Washington Not-ionals. (In fact, they were 9-0 at one point, but have inexplicably lost four of the last six games against them.) Regardless, the Marlins would only be a .500 ballclub (61-61) without their 15 games against Washington.

The Atlanta Braves are in the same boat. If you take away their eleven contests against Washington this year, their cumulative record become 63-63. Instead, thanks to winning seven of eleven against the Nationals, the Braves boast a 70-67 record and are 8.5 games behind division leading Philly... a deep hole, to be sure, but they still have an outside shot.

While the New York Mets are pretty much completely out of the playoff picture and nobody is impressed by their 62-75 record, the team would be much, much worse if they had not played Washington twelve times (winning eight). Their record is 54-71 without those games factored in. Yikes.

Perhaps the best way to illustrate just how truly bad and inept Washington has been (and how good that badness has been for the rest of the division), is to look at the team's overall record: 47-90. That is a deplorable .343 winning percentage. At the current rate, the team will only win 56 wins in the 2009 season.

The Nats are somehow even worse against teams in their own division. They are 14-36 against the National League East, or .280! If you apply that winning percentage for a full 162-game season, the team only comes up with 45 wins (which is less than they have right now). Double yikes!

Oddly enough, the Nationals might continue to be a crucial factor in determining the playoff picture for the three remaining National League East contenders: Philadelphia, Florida and Atlanta.

Since Friday, Florida was able to gain two games on the Phillies (who seemed to discover their own personal kryptonite in the form of the Houston Astros), and it could easily have been three.

True, Brad Lidge blew his tenth save of the season on Saturday and yesterday's game was quite winnable for the Phils, but Florida was able to inch considerably closer towards the NL East title mostly because they played the Nationals in their weekend series.

The Marlins should have swept them. If not for a stunning comeback by the Nationals on Sunday (scoring three runs off two homers in the bottom of the ninth), they would have. It is precisely those type of games (i.e. against an opponent as hapless as the Nats) that teams need to win if they want to walk away with a division crown.

Now, Florida only gets to play Washington three more times in 2009. Meanwhile, the Braves will play them seven more times and the Phils will play them six more times. Those contests should easily translate to five or more wins for both of those teams in the remaining stretch run.

Contending teams simply cannot afford to let such golden opportunities slip through their fingers this late in the season.

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Adopting a Surrogate Team for the Post Season

With September now upon us and the Mets’ post-season aspirations all but down the drain, I feel an odd sense of relief in many ways that I will not feel the end of season stress and disappointment that 2007 and 2008 wrought. I have had most of July and all of August to mourn the Mets and now I’m ready to adopt a surrogate team and sit back and watch the Wild Card dogfight in the National and American Leagues.


Traditionally, my top-tier adopted team is always the Red Sox. I can identify with this team because much like the Mets, they historically have been an underdog, and they are usually victimized by the hated Yankees in one way or another. But the truth of the matter is, since winning two World Series the Sox have lost a bit of charm for me. Maybe it is because the Mets haven’t won squat that I am losing my sense of kinship with the formerly beleaguered Sox Nation, but more and more I have been picking true underdog teams – especially those with very low payrolls, to pull out an October miracle. Last year it was the Rays and former Met Scott Kazmir. In 2007 it was the Rockies with their miraculous end of season hot streak, This year I have a lot of good choices but I’m thinking the Texas Rangers just might be the team I’d like to see take the Wildcard. It is doubtful they would get past the Yankees to go to the World Series so let’s just take one thing at a time for now.

My reasoning behind rooting Texas on this year is because with the exception of 2004 when they finished the season 89 – 73, this team has been in or hovering near the basement of the AL West for about 10 years. Their last playoff appearance was 1999 when the won the division. They also won the division in 1996 and 1998. All three times they lost to the Yankees. Through their history they have never played in or obviously won a World Series title. Because of this, I can truly identify with this franchise. I also feel somewhat sad for their fans. It takes a strong person to continuously root for a losing team. As a Mets fan, I know this first hand, but at least the Mets gave us 1969 and 1986 and a smattering of playoff action in between.

You also have to like how the Rangers have improved their farm system over the past couple of years. Just two years ago, Baseball America, ranked the Rangers farm system 28th out of 30 teams. The publication gave the Rangers the largest bump in its history by rating it No. 4 in 2008, and this year it ranked Texas No. 1. Note to Omar Minaya and Jeff Wilpon…maybe take some cues on how this is done and get cracking on a similar plan for the Mets.

Every year one or two teams surprise me by rising out of the ashes to be competitive. While the Rangers have some ground to make up in chasing the Red sox for the Wildcard, I get the impression that the young talent on this team is confident in their abilities like the Rays were last year. The Red Sox, on the other hand, seem to be a little older, a little more beaten up and definitely more mortal than in their championship years. It should be an interesting ride through September to watch these two teams duke it out with Tampa for a playoff slot. And the best part for me is, after a summer of turmoil in Mets land, I can just sit back, relax and take it all in on the sidelines as I wait for spring training 2010.
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One Month to Go

by Chris Pollay

After today's much-needed day off, the Philadelphia Phillies will head into September with a nice comfortable lead in the race for the National League East title.

Regardless of who wins today's matchup between the Florida Marlins and the Atlanta Braves, Philly will start the final month of the 2009 regular season with a 7 1/2 game lead with 34 games left to play.

The schedule is divided up evenly with 17 home games and 17 road games. However, it'd probably be better news if the Phils had a lot more road games left as they still boast the best road record in MLB at 41-23.

Still, anyway you slice it, the Phils are in great shape and are highly likely to make a third consecutive postseason appearance.

Of those remaining 34 games, 22 are against opponents who are currently under .500 in the win column. In fact, the Phillies have a combined 43-28 record against their remaining opponents, which include: San Francisco (3 games); Houston (8 games); Washington (6 games); New York Mets (4 games); Atlanta (3 games); Florida (6 games); and Milwaukee (4 games).

The team continues to play solidly, winning 15 games during the month of August including 14 of their last 19. The team is hot and a lot of positive signs are popping up.

Ryan Howard has been on a tear lately. Jimmy Rollins has been swinging the bat well for a long stretch. In all, four different sluggers (Howard, Utley, Werth and Ibañez) have at least 27 homers this season. That's some serious firepower.

In fact, the team still leads the National League in numerous categories: home runs, runs, total bases, SLG and OPS. The team's hitting will keep them in almost every ball game.

So, their postseason run will probably depend a lot more on pitching. The starters are an intimidating rotation. Cliff Lee finally proved he was human with his first bad start with the team. The Braves beat him up on Saturday by garnering ten hits (including three homers) and scoring six earned runs. Lee only lasted five innings.

To put that in perspective, Lee had not given up a homer in his five previous starts (all wins) and he had never lasted less than seven innings in an outing. Even more impressive, he had given up only three earned runs altogether in his five starts prior to Saturday. After the Braves lit him up, his ERA (since joining the team) jumped from .675 to 1.8, which is still quite impressive overall.

Joe Blanton, who delivered a gutsy pitching performance on Sunday to help the Phils take the series, has been consistent for a long, long time now. He hasn't given up more than three earned runs in any of his last 12 starts.

J.A. Happ has exceeded any and all expectations. The young hurler is 10 and 3 this season with a stringent 2.63 ERA. He was 3 and 1 in August and never gave up more than three runs in any of those starts.

Those three pitchers are all pitching like aces right now, which shows how deep the starting pitching is for the Phillies. After all, the MVP of the 2008 World Series is not one of their three top options at the moment. Still, don't bet against Cole Hamels if the team makes it to the postseason. He has been shaky in August, to be sure, but I believe he will lead by example in September.

Starting pitching won't be the issue for the Phillies as the season winds down. It's all about the bullpen, which, of course, has been struggling all season long. The team seems no closer to finding a secure closer, either. Brad Lidge did manage to save the game on Sunday, but his 7.03 ERA is not going to scare any teams when the Phillies hold a late lead from here on out.

Opponents will take comfort that he has blown nine saves in 36 opportunities. That's once every four chances!

Manager Charlie Manuel has one month to go to try to fix the problem, and though the Phillies should have a lot of options to consider, they are running out of time.

The team will make the playoffs. That is almost a forgone conclusion at this point. However, how far the team can go is an absolute mystery to me. Philadelphia certainly has enough potential to win a championship, but it can just as likely be beaten in the first or second round if the bullpen can't come together in time. Read more!