One Month to Go

by Chris Pollay

After today's much-needed day off, the Philadelphia Phillies will head into September with a nice comfortable lead in the race for the National League East title.

Regardless of who wins today's matchup between the Florida Marlins and the Atlanta Braves, Philly will start the final month of the 2009 regular season with a 7 1/2 game lead with 34 games left to play.

The schedule is divided up evenly with 17 home games and 17 road games. However, it'd probably be better news if the Phils had a lot more road games left as they still boast the best road record in MLB at 41-23.

Still, anyway you slice it, the Phils are in great shape and are highly likely to make a third consecutive postseason appearance.

Of those remaining 34 games, 22 are against opponents who are currently under .500 in the win column. In fact, the Phillies have a combined 43-28 record against their remaining opponents, which include: San Francisco (3 games); Houston (8 games); Washington (6 games); New York Mets (4 games); Atlanta (3 games); Florida (6 games); and Milwaukee (4 games).

The team continues to play solidly, winning 15 games during the month of August including 14 of their last 19. The team is hot and a lot of positive signs are popping up.

Ryan Howard has been on a tear lately. Jimmy Rollins has been swinging the bat well for a long stretch. In all, four different sluggers (Howard, Utley, Werth and Ibañez) have at least 27 homers this season. That's some serious firepower.

In fact, the team still leads the National League in numerous categories: home runs, runs, total bases, SLG and OPS. The team's hitting will keep them in almost every ball game.

So, their postseason run will probably depend a lot more on pitching. The starters are an intimidating rotation. Cliff Lee finally proved he was human with his first bad start with the team. The Braves beat him up on Saturday by garnering ten hits (including three homers) and scoring six earned runs. Lee only lasted five innings.

To put that in perspective, Lee had not given up a homer in his five previous starts (all wins) and he had never lasted less than seven innings in an outing. Even more impressive, he had given up only three earned runs altogether in his five starts prior to Saturday. After the Braves lit him up, his ERA (since joining the team) jumped from .675 to 1.8, which is still quite impressive overall.

Joe Blanton, who delivered a gutsy pitching performance on Sunday to help the Phils take the series, has been consistent for a long, long time now. He hasn't given up more than three earned runs in any of his last 12 starts.

J.A. Happ has exceeded any and all expectations. The young hurler is 10 and 3 this season with a stringent 2.63 ERA. He was 3 and 1 in August and never gave up more than three runs in any of those starts.

Those three pitchers are all pitching like aces right now, which shows how deep the starting pitching is for the Phillies. After all, the MVP of the 2008 World Series is not one of their three top options at the moment. Still, don't bet against Cole Hamels if the team makes it to the postseason. He has been shaky in August, to be sure, but I believe he will lead by example in September.

Starting pitching won't be the issue for the Phillies as the season winds down. It's all about the bullpen, which, of course, has been struggling all season long. The team seems no closer to finding a secure closer, either. Brad Lidge did manage to save the game on Sunday, but his 7.03 ERA is not going to scare any teams when the Phillies hold a late lead from here on out.

Opponents will take comfort that he has blown nine saves in 36 opportunities. That's once every four chances!

Manager Charlie Manuel has one month to go to try to fix the problem, and though the Phillies should have a lot of options to consider, they are running out of time.

The team will make the playoffs. That is almost a forgone conclusion at this point. However, how far the team can go is an absolute mystery to me. Philadelphia certainly has enough potential to win a championship, but it can just as likely be beaten in the first or second round if the bullpen can't come together in time. Read more!

The rotation is just fine

There’s an old quote that says, “You can never have enough pitching.” Well, actually, you can, and that is what the Philadelphia Phillies are faced with now. They have potentially six starting pitchers and only five spots in the rotation.

The problem surfaced when the Phillies signed free agent Pedro Martinez in July as an insurance policy in case they had to trade away Rookie of the Year candidate J.A. Happ as part of a deal to land Roy Halladay. That deal never took place; Happ stayed, and the Phillies acquired Indians ace Cliff Lee instead.

When Lee joined the club last week, Rodrigo Lopez, who was filling in as the club’s fifth starter, had to move to the bullpen. Martinez, however, is still working out the bugs in the minor leagues, but when he is ready to come up and join the Phillies, many have speculated as to where he will go and what will happen to the rotation. The choice is not easy, but it might not be as complicated as some are making it out to be.

The top end of the rotation has no questions as to who will fill the spots: Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Joe Blanton. The only question here is whether or not Hamels can look like the ace he was back in October when he lead the Phillies to a World Championship. Cole has struggled this year at times, and excluding his last start against the Giants where he gave up six earned runs in just five innings, he appeared to be stringing together a few good starts against Florida, San Diego, and Arizona, and he looked like the Hamels of old.

The back end of the rotation, however, is where all the controversy has been brewing for the past few weeks. Three pitchers – J.A. Happ, Jamie Moyer, Pedro Martinez – and only two spots.

Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. filled one of those spots on Wednesday after J.A. Happ tossed a complete game shutout over the Colorado Rockies. Happ upped his record to 8-2 on the year and dropped his ERA to 2.74. Prior to that start, he lost his previous two outings, was faced with swirling trade talk, and had to deal with rumors that he might get moved to the bullpen.

The sheer fact Happ was able to show composure amidst such chaos and toss a gem is one of the reasons he needs to pitch every fifth day. Also, it would be unwise to even consider tinkering with Happ at this point. He is a young hurler who is pitching fantastically for the Phillies right now, and moving him back to the bullpen would not only weaken the rotation, but it would also mess with his confidence. I seem to recall young pitchers named Gavin Floyd and Ryan Madson who went back and forth, and that didn’t work out so well for the Phils now did it?

Next up is the ageless Jamie Moyer. Charlie Manuel mentioned earlier in the week that he wanted Jamie to stay in the rotation, and I almost agree with Charlie to a point. Jamie does lead the team in wins, but he also bolsters a 5.55 ERA, which is worst amongst starters. The reason he has the most wins is primarily because he typically faces one of the opposing team’s worst pitchers, and the Phillies give him a ton of run support. Yes, he does string together a few good outings every so often, but there are too many times like the one on Tuesday where he gave up six earned runs in five innings and walked four batters.

With that said, I still don’t think shipping Jamie off to the bullpen is such a good idea. First of all, Moyer hasn’t pitched in relief since the mid 1990’s. Second, Jamie would be coming into situations where he would have to get out of jams, which a lot of relievers rely on their fastball to do, and let’s face it, an 86 mph fastball isn’t mowing down anyone. Third, being in the bullpen means you have to be ready to pitch almost every day, and I think at age 47, Jamie has earned his four days off in between starts.

Lastly, there is Pedro Martinez, the man for whom all this controversy is over. When Pedro joins the team, he should do so as a member of the bullpen. I honestly don’t think Pedro has what it takes to be an effective starter any more. If he did, he would have had a job for the first four months of the season. He can probably get the job done for one, two, or maybe even three innings, but once lineups begin to face him a second time around, I feel they would start to tee off on him.

Plus, I don’t think Pedro’s arm can last into the seventh inning as a starter. So if you replace Moyer with Pedro, you would be replacing a guy in the rotation who can’t pitch seven innings for a guy who can’t even pitch six innings. That doesn’t exactly help out an already overworked bullpen. As a result, Pedro could pitch either in long relief or maybe take turns making guest appearances with Brett Myers in the ninth inning if Brad Lidge begins to struggle again.
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There’s no need to argue, Ruben just don’t understand

I get that GM Ruben Amaro Jr. doesn’t want to give up Kyle Drabek as well as J.A. Happ in a trade for the much-coveted Roy Halladay. But the Blue Jays organization has made it incredibly clear that a trade without both of them involved is going to be nearly impossible to negotiate. They made this clear by quickly rejecting a four-for-one trade with three of the Phillies best prospects and Happ. Now, the burning question is this: who cracks first?

The Phils latest offer was Happ, OF Michael Taylor, RHP Carlos Carrasco, and SS Jason Donald. This isn’t a terrible trade, except for the fact that Toronto wants Happ, Drabek and OF Dominic Brown. I get why Drabek was removed from the deal, but Brown? If Ruben’s going to get Halladay on the cheap, it’s not going to be off the $.99 cent rack: we have to give them SOMETHING that they want. Brown is going to have to be in this trade whether the Phillies like it or not.

And call me crazy (you wouldn’t be the first) but if we’re grabbing Halladay to make us a favorite for a run this year then I say screw keeping Drabek and let’s keep Happ who’s had an amazing 2009. He recently tied a Phillies record of eight-straight wins, which included a win from 2008, and except for a sub-par showing on Friday night he’s been lights out all season.

If you trade away Happ then our rotation is only slightly better than what it is now. There’s still going to be a hole somewhere, and I’m not completely convinced that Pedro Martinez is the Mighty Putty we’ve been looking for all season. There’s a reason why he was still in the Dominican Republic halfway through the season, but the Phils front office is too desperate to realize that right now.

Here’s the thing: if the Phillies are welcome to a four-for-one trade, then there’s no reason why they don’t come out of this on top. Toronto is in some tight binds financially and they know Halladay won’t be there when it comes time for free agency. All they want is something that’s going to let them save face in trading away the only active pitcher with 100+ wins and no playoff appearances.

So Rube, if you’re listening, make them a four-for-one they can’t refuse: Drabek, Brown, Taylor and Donald. They would be getting four outstanding prospects, all of whom were once on your “untouchable” list, and we would get to keep both Happ and Carrasco. Prospects are a dime a dozen and every team out there has the next Nolan Ryan somewhere in their farm system.

The truth is, no one knows how good Drabek will be until he stops pitching to wannabes and starts pitching to the big boys. Let them be disappointed, as most “untouchable” prospects do disappoint, and we’ll be laughing all the way to our second straight World Series win.

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Ruben, it's a no-brainer

Friday night J.P. Ricciardi and the Toronto Blue Jays made public their list of demands from the Phillies for pitcher Roy Halladay. The Blue Jays are asking for pitcher J.A. Happ, minor league pitcher Kyle Drabek, and minor league outfielder Dominic Brown. Reports out of Philadelphia, however, are that the Phillies and General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. do not want to make the deal for fear they are giving up too much, and honestly, that couldn’t be farther from the truth.

If that is all Toronto is asking from the Phils, I will gladly pack each of their bags and drive them to Philadelphia International Airport. Yes, the Phillies would be getting rid of new fan-favorite J.A. Happ, who is a potential Rookie of the Year candidate. Yes, the Phils would be giving up their top prospect in the minors in Kyle Drabek, whom most fans in Philadelphia think is the second coming of Nolan Ryan but who also have never seen pitch. Yes, the Phillies would be trading away minor league outfielder Dominic Brown, who I am certain most Philadelphians couldn’t even tell you on what minor league team he plays. But, what the team would be getting in return far outweighs what they would be giving up.

For the fans who want to hold onto the minor leaguers like Eagles coach Andy Reid holds on to draft picks, they need to remember that prospects are players that scouts and minor league managers think have the potential to be impact players in the big leagues. They are not guaranteed stars, so to treat them as if they are, especially the pitching ones, is ridiculous. For every Cole Hamels there is a Tyler Green. Sure, there might be a player or two you don’t want to trade away, but sometimes you have to be willing to take that gamble and hope it pays off. When you have an established major league team that is already winning (like the Phillies), then the talent in the minor leagues become the pawn pieces used to tweak or bolster a roster for a playoff run.

In that case, the trade essentially becomes Halladay for Happ, which should be a no-brainer for the Phillies GM. In his start Friday night against the Tampa Bay Rays, Halladay pitched nine innings and struck out 10 on his way to a no-decision, and the Blue Jays ended up losing the game 4-2 in 10 innings. Meanwhile, in Philadelphia, J.A. Happ gave up five earned runs in six innings of work against the Cardinals on his way to his first loss of the season. Happ is good, and he has the potential to be a decent starting pitcher in the majors, but Halladay is an ace, and aces don’t exactly grow on trees.

And if that doesn’t sell Ruben, instead of looking at who the Phillies would be giving up in a trade, look at who they would be keeping. They would be keeping Lehigh Valley outfielder Michael Taylor, who is hitting bombs in the minor leagues like Ryan Howard used to do. They would be holding on to minor league pitchers Joe Savery, who is 12-3 for Reading, and Carlos Carrasco, who I think now may be included in a deal to get a right-handed bat off the bench. The Phillies would also be keeping shortstop Jason Donald and catcher Lou Marson, who could be with the club next season with Chris Coste gone and Paul Bako being 37 years old himself. Plus, the Phillies still have newly signed and former three-time Cy Young Award winner Pedro Martinez they can plug into the rotation, and there are even talks about the injured Brett Myers rejoining the squad (probably in the bullpen) some time in August.

The Phillies are built to win now, so they need a player that can help them win now. Their core players are in their prime and are actually signed for the next couple of years. If the Phillies were an up and coming team, then I would encourage Ruben Amaro, Jr. to hold on to the prospects in the minors, but they are not. They are a defending world champion looking to repeat, and acquiring arguably the best pitcher in the American League makes the Phillies the hands-on favorite to do so.
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Lucky 13 for the Phillies

By Chris Pollay

The Philadelphia Phillies headed into the All-Star break riding a nice hot streak. Then, they swiftly picked up the trail right where they left off (once the American League proceeded with its annual beatdown of the National League anyway).

The Phils (51-38) are officially the hottest team in baseball having won eight straight and 12 of their last 13 games, including three-game sweeps of the New York Mets, the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Florida Marlins.

It’s not difficult to see why the team has been so effective lately: they have boasted a 2.40 ERA during the last 13 games (120 innings altogether) with three shutouts. They also have outhit opponents with a margin of 129 to 89 in that time.

The Phils have won a few squeakers, to be sure, but most games in July (when the Phils are 12-3 right now) have been blowouts. In fact, during the last 13 games, the Phillies have outscored the opposition 81 to 32.

The pitching has stepped up big time and rookie J.A. Happ, now 7-0, has helped lead the charge. Jamie Moyer seems to be finding his rhythm as he has gone 3-0 for July beating the Mets, Reds and Marlins. Joe Blanton has also heated up in July, winning his last two games in which he only gave up one earned run in over 14 innings. He beat two quality starters in the Mets’ Johan Santana and the Pirates’ Zach Duke.

The only loss in the past 13 games was attributed to Brad Lidge when the Reds got the best of him. Lights Out Lidge has been more like “Leave the LIghts On” Lidge lately as he has an earned run in three of his last four outings. Still, despite his occasional flare for the dramatic, he has recorded five saves in July and his last Blown Save occurred back on June 6.

In addition to the improved pitching, the Phils have lit up opposing pitchers like Roman candles all throughout the month. Perhaps the Most Improved Player of the month should go to leadoff man Jimmy Rollins who has batted .388 (21 for 54) in the last 13 games. He only has one homer since July 3rd, but he has filled up all the other offensive stats impressively: 13 runs, eight RBIs, ten walks, and five stolen bases. As Jimmy goes, so do the Phils.

Of course, it hasn’t hurt that second baseman Chase Utley has knocked in four home runs and 13 RBIs, scoring 11 runs during the 12-1 blitz. He is batting .372 (19 of 51) in that time. In the same frame, Shane Victorino has batted .370 (20 of 54) and contributing heavily with 11 runs, nine walks and six RBIs.

Jason Werth has continued to step up. In his last 13 games, he has batted only .250 (11 for 44), but he had made the most of his hits with five homers and 14 RBIs. He’s also scored seven runs and showed more patience, earning eleven walks. Slugger Ryan Howard has also showed more control of late, having earned 13 walks in the last 13 games. Of course, he’s also inflicted some damage with three home runs, nine runs, and eight RBIs by batting .307 (12 of 39).

Perhaps the best sign of things to come is the return of Raul Ibañez, who has helped carry the team recently. He’s only played in five games since returning from the DL, but he has hit a scorching .368 (7 for 19) with two home runs, six RBIs and five runs.


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A Cy Young winner among us?

The Blue Jays are shopping ace Roy Halladay and it has been reported the Phillies are one of the teams interested. On Tuesday morning it was reported that Toronto Blue Jay’s General Manager J.P. Ricciardi would entertain offers for the team’s ace and 2003 American League Cy Young winner Roy Halladay.

Halladay, recently off a stint on the 15-day disabled list, owns a 10-2 record and a 2.79 ERA.

The two-time 20-game winner has one year left on his current contract worth $15.75 million as well as a no-trade clause on his contract in which he has said he would waive if the situation was good for him and for the team.

In order to beat out the trade offers from teams such as the Red Sox, Yankees and Angels, the Phillies will have to give up a hefty package to obtain the hard-throwing righty.

Scott Lauber from The News Journal reported via twitter that a Blue Jays scout was in attendance at Citizens Bank Park tonight which may mean Toronto is interested in J.A. Happ as part of the deal.

But that’s certainly not all it would take to land Halladay.

Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman said he heard Ricciardi is looking for a shortstop. Maybe minor-league youngster Jason Donald would work in that regard.

But if the Phils want Halladay, they would have to give up at least one of their young studs from the farm system: Carlos Carrasco, Kyle Drabek, Jason Knapp, Dominic Brown, Yohan Flande, Joe Savery, or Michael Taylor.

If I’m Reuben Amaro, I am working out a deal with any of those guys with the exception of Drabek, who I give up if all else fails.

The time for this team is now with the nucleus of players — Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Cole Hamels — Halladay, a 6-6 right-handed ace, is what this team needs if it wants to get back to the World Series and be the last team standing in October.
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