One Month to Go

by Chris Pollay

After today's much-needed day off, the Philadelphia Phillies will head into September with a nice comfortable lead in the race for the National League East title.

Regardless of who wins today's matchup between the Florida Marlins and the Atlanta Braves, Philly will start the final month of the 2009 regular season with a 7 1/2 game lead with 34 games left to play.

The schedule is divided up evenly with 17 home games and 17 road games. However, it'd probably be better news if the Phils had a lot more road games left as they still boast the best road record in MLB at 41-23.

Still, anyway you slice it, the Phils are in great shape and are highly likely to make a third consecutive postseason appearance.

Of those remaining 34 games, 22 are against opponents who are currently under .500 in the win column. In fact, the Phillies have a combined 43-28 record against their remaining opponents, which include: San Francisco (3 games); Houston (8 games); Washington (6 games); New York Mets (4 games); Atlanta (3 games); Florida (6 games); and Milwaukee (4 games).

The team continues to play solidly, winning 15 games during the month of August including 14 of their last 19. The team is hot and a lot of positive signs are popping up.

Ryan Howard has been on a tear lately. Jimmy Rollins has been swinging the bat well for a long stretch. In all, four different sluggers (Howard, Utley, Werth and Ibañez) have at least 27 homers this season. That's some serious firepower.

In fact, the team still leads the National League in numerous categories: home runs, runs, total bases, SLG and OPS. The team's hitting will keep them in almost every ball game.

So, their postseason run will probably depend a lot more on pitching. The starters are an intimidating rotation. Cliff Lee finally proved he was human with his first bad start with the team. The Braves beat him up on Saturday by garnering ten hits (including three homers) and scoring six earned runs. Lee only lasted five innings.

To put that in perspective, Lee had not given up a homer in his five previous starts (all wins) and he had never lasted less than seven innings in an outing. Even more impressive, he had given up only three earned runs altogether in his five starts prior to Saturday. After the Braves lit him up, his ERA (since joining the team) jumped from .675 to 1.8, which is still quite impressive overall.

Joe Blanton, who delivered a gutsy pitching performance on Sunday to help the Phils take the series, has been consistent for a long, long time now. He hasn't given up more than three earned runs in any of his last 12 starts.

J.A. Happ has exceeded any and all expectations. The young hurler is 10 and 3 this season with a stringent 2.63 ERA. He was 3 and 1 in August and never gave up more than three runs in any of those starts.

Those three pitchers are all pitching like aces right now, which shows how deep the starting pitching is for the Phillies. After all, the MVP of the 2008 World Series is not one of their three top options at the moment. Still, don't bet against Cole Hamels if the team makes it to the postseason. He has been shaky in August, to be sure, but I believe he will lead by example in September.

Starting pitching won't be the issue for the Phillies as the season winds down. It's all about the bullpen, which, of course, has been struggling all season long. The team seems no closer to finding a secure closer, either. Brad Lidge did manage to save the game on Sunday, but his 7.03 ERA is not going to scare any teams when the Phillies hold a late lead from here on out.

Opponents will take comfort that he has blown nine saves in 36 opportunities. That's once every four chances!

Manager Charlie Manuel has one month to go to try to fix the problem, and though the Phillies should have a lot of options to consider, they are running out of time.

The team will make the playoffs. That is almost a forgone conclusion at this point. However, how far the team can go is an absolute mystery to me. Philadelphia certainly has enough potential to win a championship, but it can just as likely be beaten in the first or second round if the bullpen can't come together in time. Read more!

The rotation is just fine

There’s an old quote that says, “You can never have enough pitching.” Well, actually, you can, and that is what the Philadelphia Phillies are faced with now. They have potentially six starting pitchers and only five spots in the rotation.

The problem surfaced when the Phillies signed free agent Pedro Martinez in July as an insurance policy in case they had to trade away Rookie of the Year candidate J.A. Happ as part of a deal to land Roy Halladay. That deal never took place; Happ stayed, and the Phillies acquired Indians ace Cliff Lee instead.

When Lee joined the club last week, Rodrigo Lopez, who was filling in as the club’s fifth starter, had to move to the bullpen. Martinez, however, is still working out the bugs in the minor leagues, but when he is ready to come up and join the Phillies, many have speculated as to where he will go and what will happen to the rotation. The choice is not easy, but it might not be as complicated as some are making it out to be.

The top end of the rotation has no questions as to who will fill the spots: Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Joe Blanton. The only question here is whether or not Hamels can look like the ace he was back in October when he lead the Phillies to a World Championship. Cole has struggled this year at times, and excluding his last start against the Giants where he gave up six earned runs in just five innings, he appeared to be stringing together a few good starts against Florida, San Diego, and Arizona, and he looked like the Hamels of old.

The back end of the rotation, however, is where all the controversy has been brewing for the past few weeks. Three pitchers – J.A. Happ, Jamie Moyer, Pedro Martinez – and only two spots.

Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. filled one of those spots on Wednesday after J.A. Happ tossed a complete game shutout over the Colorado Rockies. Happ upped his record to 8-2 on the year and dropped his ERA to 2.74. Prior to that start, he lost his previous two outings, was faced with swirling trade talk, and had to deal with rumors that he might get moved to the bullpen.

The sheer fact Happ was able to show composure amidst such chaos and toss a gem is one of the reasons he needs to pitch every fifth day. Also, it would be unwise to even consider tinkering with Happ at this point. He is a young hurler who is pitching fantastically for the Phillies right now, and moving him back to the bullpen would not only weaken the rotation, but it would also mess with his confidence. I seem to recall young pitchers named Gavin Floyd and Ryan Madson who went back and forth, and that didn’t work out so well for the Phils now did it?

Next up is the ageless Jamie Moyer. Charlie Manuel mentioned earlier in the week that he wanted Jamie to stay in the rotation, and I almost agree with Charlie to a point. Jamie does lead the team in wins, but he also bolsters a 5.55 ERA, which is worst amongst starters. The reason he has the most wins is primarily because he typically faces one of the opposing team’s worst pitchers, and the Phillies give him a ton of run support. Yes, he does string together a few good outings every so often, but there are too many times like the one on Tuesday where he gave up six earned runs in five innings and walked four batters.

With that said, I still don’t think shipping Jamie off to the bullpen is such a good idea. First of all, Moyer hasn’t pitched in relief since the mid 1990’s. Second, Jamie would be coming into situations where he would have to get out of jams, which a lot of relievers rely on their fastball to do, and let’s face it, an 86 mph fastball isn’t mowing down anyone. Third, being in the bullpen means you have to be ready to pitch almost every day, and I think at age 47, Jamie has earned his four days off in between starts.

Lastly, there is Pedro Martinez, the man for whom all this controversy is over. When Pedro joins the team, he should do so as a member of the bullpen. I honestly don’t think Pedro has what it takes to be an effective starter any more. If he did, he would have had a job for the first four months of the season. He can probably get the job done for one, two, or maybe even three innings, but once lineups begin to face him a second time around, I feel they would start to tee off on him.

Plus, I don’t think Pedro’s arm can last into the seventh inning as a starter. So if you replace Moyer with Pedro, you would be replacing a guy in the rotation who can’t pitch seven innings for a guy who can’t even pitch six innings. That doesn’t exactly help out an already overworked bullpen. As a result, Pedro could pitch either in long relief or maybe take turns making guest appearances with Brett Myers in the ninth inning if Brad Lidge begins to struggle again.
Read more!

The Hottest July in Recent Record

By Chris Pollay

It’s a good time to be a Philadelphia Phillies fan.

After all, the defending MLB champions are currently leading the National League East comfortably with a five-game lead. True, they just dropped three of four to the San Francisco Giants, but that was the first series the team has lost since one with the Atlanta Braves that concluded on July 2nd.

The team is only going to get better after recently upgrading its roster, adding 2008 Cy Young Winner Cliff Lee, who only gave up four hits and one run in a complete game, his first outing with the Phils. Also of note, he is 4-0 in his last four starts including three complete games with an ERA of 1.32 in that time.

The future indeed looks secure, especially if the recent past is any indication. The team just finished one of its hottest months of July in recent history, carving out an impressive 20-7 (.741) record.

To put that in perspective, consider this: the last time the Phillies won 20 games in one month was back in May of 2001 when the team went 20-8 (.714).

Last month, the team strung together win streaks of four twice and ten once. They only lost back-to-back games twice during the entire month. In that time, the Phillies outscored opponents by a stunning margin of 153 to 97. Incidentally, that was the most runs scored and fewest runs allowed by the ballclub in any month this year.

In fact, the last time the Phils gave up fewer than 100 runs in an entire month (featuring at least 25 games) was June of 2003.

Philadelphia was so dominant that it outscored its opponents by 56 runs in 27 games for an average of more than two runs a game! It’s amazing what can happen when a baseball team clicks on both offense and defense at the same time.


Everybody Pitching In

As of today, the Phillies’ overall team ERA is at 4.37. However, for the month of July, the team tallied a cumulative 3.22 ERA over the course of 246 innings pitched. Only 88 of the 97 runs given up were earned.

Philadelphia pitched three shoutouts and gave up only two runs or less 14 times (and were 14-0 in those games, not too surprisingly). The best aspect about it all, however, was that it was a complete team effort.

Here are some of the starting pitching performances of the month:

Joe Blanton (3-0): 29.2 IP, 22Ks, 1.21 ERA

Cole Hamels (3-1): 37 IP, 29Ks, 4.38 ERA

J.A. Happ (2-2): 40 IP, 31Ks, 2.93 ERA

Cliff Lee (1-0 as a Philly): 9 IP, 6Ks, 1.0 ERA

Rodrigo Lopez (3-1): 27.1 IP, 17Ks, 3.62 ERA

Jamie Moyer (4-1): 30 IP, 15Ks, 3.3 ERA

The Phillies' hurlers were simply much more consistent than they have been the rest of the year, giving up only 65 walks for the month compared to striking out 190 batters. Although, the team did continue with one of its scary statistics: home runs allowed. The team gave up 27 altogether in July, or an average of one a game.


Hitting on All Cylinders

Of course, a team can give up one home run a game if it manages to outhit its opponents thoroughly.

The team smashed 35 homers in July and 247 hits altogether (91 of which were extra base hits). The team batted a cumulative .259 for the month and hit in double digits eleven different times!

Overall, 145 of the 153 runs the team scored were batted in. The team did continue to strikeout often, though, but did show reasonable patience by earning 116 walks (51 more than their opponents in that time).

Like the Phillies’ pitching last month, the team’s hitting was also a result of contributions from almost everybody. Here’s a breakdown of some of the big numbers:

Jayson Werth: 7 HR, 23 RBIs

Ryan Howard: 6 HR, 18 RBIs

Chase Utley: 6 HR, 18 RBIs

Jimmy Rollins: 4 HR, 19 RBIs

Raul Ibañez: 4 HR, 16 RBIs

Shane Victorino: 3 HR, 14 RBIs

Pedro Feliz: 1 HR, 13 RBIs

One hot month can make all the difference in a pennant race. The Phils were actually tied for first place on July 2nd, but by the end of the month they secured a comfortable six-game lead despite playing 13 straight games at the end of July.

Perhaps the brightest statistic, however, is that the team remembered how to win in its own ballpark, accruing a 14-3 home record for the month, giving them an overall record of 27-25. Their home record was an astonishing 13-22 before the start of July.

Read more!

Halladay or No Halladay, Let's Have Some Faith...

Halladay, Halladay, and yes, you guessed it, more Halladay. Roy Halladay’s name has been tossed around so much in the Philadelphia area the past month or so that people who, thirty days ago didn’t know Roy Halladay from a national holiday, have become masterful experts with opinions as loud as gunfire on the pitcher. Of course, it’s not a bad thing to have this many people interested in the Phillies. In fact, it’s a welcome change of pace from years past when the majority of the region was ready for football season by the beginning of July. While the majority of fans seem to be willing to acquire Halladay at any cost, perhaps we should try to recall some very recent history.

Last season, the Brewers gave up a ton in prospects, including top outfield prospect Matt Laporta, to essentially “rent” C.C. Sabathia for a couple of months. The Cubs gave up four of their most highly regarded prospects to get Rich Harden. The Phillies, however, made the smallest splash in acquiring Joe Blanton for three prospects. Only one of these teams won the World Series.

While most media outlets proclaimed Milwaukee and Chicago sure favorites in the National League with their respective acquisitions, the Phils flew a little bit under the radar with theirs. In the end, it was the team who made the smallest splash at the trading deadline that made the biggest splash in the postseason.

This of course is not to say that Phillies fans shouldn’t be ecstatic if the team does, in fact, make a deal to put “Doc” Halladay in red pinstripes, but it is to say that they should not be overly disappointed if they do not. Given the Phils’ track record the past couple of seasons, maybe it’s time we had a little faith that they might make the right move, even if it’s not the loudest one.
. Read more!

Read 'Em and Sweep

By Chris Pollay

At the start of the weekend, four teams found themselves bottlenecked together atop the National League East. The Philadelphia Phillies and Florida Marlins were tied for first with the New York Mets only one game back and the Atlanta Braves a mere two-and-a-half back.

When the smoke cleared at the end of Sunday afternoon, it was the Phillies who remained at the top with a one game lead over the Marlins and a four-game lead over the Braves and Mets.

Here are some of my observations following another wild showdown against the Phils and the Mets in the competitive NL East:

• The Mets held a 4-3 record against Philadelphia for the season going into the weekend (they also won four of the first five games in 2009). After Philly swiftly swept the series, however, the Liberty Bell Bombers now lead the rivalry this season by a 6-4 margin including five straight wins.

• The Phillies started the weekend leading the National League in numerous offensive categories, including: first in runs scored (394); first in home runs (107); first in slugging percentage (.444); first in OPS (.778); and first in total bases (1,173), yet they were barely treading over .500 with a 39-37 record. They can blame the inconsistency mostly on bad pitching as the ballclub was also ranked 15th in the National League in giving up earned runs, and 16th in hits and home runs allowed. In fact, the team had given up at least five runs in 14 of their last 18 games before they hosted the Mets on Friday. During the three-game series, however, Philly only gave up three runs overall to New York and emerged with a much more respectable 42-37 record.

• Philadelphia dominated a one-sided series in which they never trailed (or needed to bat in the 9th, for that matter). They outscored the Mets 13 to 3, outhit them 23 to 18 and didn't make an error. The Mets committed two. New York batted a collective .196 (18 of 92) and the Phils were .261 (23 of 88) as a team.

• The trio of starting pitchers for the Phils (Rodrigo Lopez, Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton) boasted an ERA of 1.35 in 20 innings. Even more notable, the club's bullpen had a cumulative ERA of 0.00. Not a single run was scored by the Mets in the 8th or 9th innings.

• Philadelphia exploded out of the gate strong and scored in the first inning of EVERY game setting the tone in the series. They were clearly hungrier and more focussed.

• Philly had accrued a distressful 13-22 home record before the series started. Now, it’s still less-than-stellar at 16-22, but the home sweep is definitely a promising sign.

• Jimmy Rollins proved once again to be a pesky thorn in the Mets' collective back sides. After struggling all season long, his bat seems to be heating up at just the right time. This weekend, he connected on five of eleven (.455) from the leadoff spot with three walks and a home run. He also scored twice and tallied five RBIs. By all accounts, he was the MVP of the weekend series.

• Chase Utley and Shane Victorino also came up clutch for the Phils. Utley batted .333 (3 for 9) with one homer, three RBIs and two runs. The Flying Hawaiian was hotter than Spam Musubi batting .429 (6 for 14) and scoring three runs with one RBI. The top of Philadelphia's lineup was absolutely devastating in the series.

• The Phillies showed much more patience in the batter's box, which is a large reason why they swept. They did strike out 15 times, but they also drew 14 walks. Meanwhile, the Mets only walked six times and whiffed 20 times.

For now, it appears the Phils are stabilizing and the Mets continue to be embroiled in turmoil (not to mention injuries). It will be interesting to see where the two teams sit in the standings when they play their next series in late August. The Mets will host four straight games.

The two teams face off against each other eight more times in the regular season.

Read more!