The Washington Nationals Effect

By Chris Pollay

There is nothing like playing in the same division as the worst team in baseball. In fact, playing such a team 18 or 19 times throughout the season can unquestionably be the difference between playing above .500 and playing below .500.

That has largely been the case for the top three teams in the National League East. Right now, the Philadelphia Phillies are 77-57 and leading the NL East by 6 1/2 games. A large reason for this is the team's record against the Washington Nationals. They are 10-2 against them so far this season. If you take that away from their cumulative record, guess what? They become only a 67-55 team and are likely battling for their lives for a Wildcard playoff spot.

The Florida Marlins, second in the division currently with a 72-65 record, are 11-4 against the Washington Not-ionals. (In fact, they were 9-0 at one point, but have inexplicably lost four of the last six games against them.) Regardless, the Marlins would only be a .500 ballclub (61-61) without their 15 games against Washington.

The Atlanta Braves are in the same boat. If you take away their eleven contests against Washington this year, their cumulative record become 63-63. Instead, thanks to winning seven of eleven against the Nationals, the Braves boast a 70-67 record and are 8.5 games behind division leading Philly... a deep hole, to be sure, but they still have an outside shot.

While the New York Mets are pretty much completely out of the playoff picture and nobody is impressed by their 62-75 record, the team would be much, much worse if they had not played Washington twelve times (winning eight). Their record is 54-71 without those games factored in. Yikes.

Perhaps the best way to illustrate just how truly bad and inept Washington has been (and how good that badness has been for the rest of the division), is to look at the team's overall record: 47-90. That is a deplorable .343 winning percentage. At the current rate, the team will only win 56 wins in the 2009 season.

The Nats are somehow even worse against teams in their own division. They are 14-36 against the National League East, or .280! If you apply that winning percentage for a full 162-game season, the team only comes up with 45 wins (which is less than they have right now). Double yikes!

Oddly enough, the Nationals might continue to be a crucial factor in determining the playoff picture for the three remaining National League East contenders: Philadelphia, Florida and Atlanta.

Since Friday, Florida was able to gain two games on the Phillies (who seemed to discover their own personal kryptonite in the form of the Houston Astros), and it could easily have been three.

True, Brad Lidge blew his tenth save of the season on Saturday and yesterday's game was quite winnable for the Phils, but Florida was able to inch considerably closer towards the NL East title mostly because they played the Nationals in their weekend series.

The Marlins should have swept them. If not for a stunning comeback by the Nationals on Sunday (scoring three runs off two homers in the bottom of the ninth), they would have. It is precisely those type of games (i.e. against an opponent as hapless as the Nats) that teams need to win if they want to walk away with a division crown.

Now, Florida only gets to play Washington three more times in 2009. Meanwhile, the Braves will play them seven more times and the Phils will play them six more times. Those contests should easily translate to five or more wins for both of those teams in the remaining stretch run.

Contending teams simply cannot afford to let such golden opportunities slip through their fingers this late in the season.

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Rough Road Ahead

By Chris Pollay

Last Friday, the Philadelphia Phillies (61-48) stood poised atop the National League East with a comfortable seven-game lead ahead of Florida as the Marlins headed to the City of Brotherly Love for an important three-game series.

By the time the Marlins left, however, the huge lead shrunk down to only four games and the Phils are suddenly looking quite vulnerable.

It’s not so much that the Marlins outscored the Phillies 21 to 9 and outhit them by a stunning margin of 39 to 21 -- although that certainly helps -- but it’s the road that lies directly ahead. It's not going to be an easy one.

This week the Phillies travel on the road and face two tough ballclubs: the Chicago Cubs (58-51) and the Atlanta Braves (58-54), teams that have beat the Phillies eight of twelve times this season thus far.

And, right now, the Phils look like they would struggle to beat anybody.

After a blistering hot July, they are once again all-too-fallible, losing eight of their last eleven games, including a humiliating 12 to 3 loss to Florida on Sunday where the Phillies were so frustrated that Shane Victorino got ejected while flapping his arms in centerfield (apparently showing his displeasure for the home plate umpire's calls).

I can't blame him, really. It was a lousy day for the home team. Incidentally, 12 runs is the most the Phillies have given up to any ballclub in all of the 2009 season and the Marlins' 19 hits in the game was a season high.

Hmmm. Maybe Victorino was trying to simply fly the Hell out of there.

Still, the home losses to the Marlins are hardly an unusual occurrence this year. It is interesting to note that the Phils and Marlins seems to prefer each other’s ballparks. At Citizens Bank Park, the Marlins are 5-1 in 2009; however, when the two teams meet in Land Shark Stadium, the Phils have won all six games.

Unfortunately, this weekend was played in Philly. Thus, the Marlins exploded offensively right when they need it most. The team batted 39 for 116 (.336) compared to a struggling Phillies club that only hit 21 of 99 (.212).

Helping the Marlins bat like a team of Triple Crown Winners was the Phils’ sputtering starting pitching staff, which didn’t pitch well (4.76 ERA) or deep. They only lasted 17 innings in the series, taxing the bullpen to come in for ten innings in three days. The late inning relievers were simply awful, giving up eleven earned runs and an ERA of 9.9.

Hopefully, the team will enjoy the day off and rest up a bit as clearly fatigue is catching up with them.

The Phillies need to step up this month as they face National League East opponents ten times in the month's remaining 19 games. The club is 25-18 against its own division this season, but if you take out the games against the basement-dwelling Nationals, they are only 15-16.

That's simply not good enough if you want to win the division crown.

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