C-C-Crazy in Colorado!

By Chris Pollay

It was a cold game.

I was half surprised to see that none of the players in Game Three of the Colorado-Philadelphia series were wearing ice skates. Nobody seemed to suffer from frostbite, either. In fact, the bats somehow remained incredibly hot even in the most frigid of temperatures... 35 degrees at the START of the four-hour game, which tied for the coldest game-time temperature in postseason history.

The game featured 18 hits and eleven runs, an extremely high number considering that the dugouts were nicely heated and the base paths were downright chilly.

It was a close game.

The Phillies struck first with a Chase Utley solo shot in the top of the first and I found myself smiling because rookie starting pitcher J.A. Happ has been a scrooge with earned runs all season long.

Well, until last night anyway. He didn’t hold the lead long. He gave up two runs in the first and another in the third and left the game after only three innings.

He allowed five hits and two walks altogether and most of that damage came from the bat of Garrett Atkins, a man who I never had any beef with before yesterday but suddenly found myself cursing his name loudly and often as he seemed bent on giving the Rockies a one-game lead single-handedly.

But, the seesaw battle changed tone in the top of the fourth when the Phillies exploded for three runs (without a long ball, for once). When Raul Ibañez drew a bases-loaded walk I felt the momentum change. I knew the Phillies were going to win. I just knew it.

Well, until the bottom of the same inning when #%@!ing Carlos Gonzalez went deep and tied the game at four. It hurt, don’t get me wrong, but I would be remiss if I did not point out that the Phillies’ bullpen (considered its biggest weakness) came through as its biggest strength last night, giving up only two runs in six innings!

Fortunately, another Carlos (Mr. Ruiz) came through in the clutch again for the Phils with an RBI single in the sixth. I was able to ramble on about how much he improved this season (and, how this crucial hit ACTUALLY LEFT THE INFIELD) to anybody who cared for a full inning before the blasted Rockies showed their resilience yet again and knotted the game up at five a piece in the bottom of the 7th.

That’s when I looked for the Rolaids. R-O-L-A-I-D-S may spell “relief” (as the old ad slogan goes), but I knew that a late-inning tied game favored the Rockies.

It was a crazy game... and a loooong one, too.

There were 12 pitchers in the game altogether, and it didn’t even go to extra innings.

I certainly couldn’t have predicted the 9th inning, to be sure. I certainly didn’t see Utley get hit by the ball in his “Excuse Me” single, and I’m guessing he actually didn’t feel it since he had probably been numb from the baseball hat down for about four hours before it happened.

That was a big play and a blown call, but it didn’t cost the Rockies the game. After all, they faced the shakiest closer in postseason on the mound in the bottom of the ninth, and had men on first and second.

Yet, despite the all-too-familiar scenario for Philly fans, Brad Lidge came through when it counted most, proving you can blow eleven saves and go 0-8 for the year with a 7.21 ERA and it means nothing if you can come through in the playoffs.

Now, he’s one-for-one in saves with an ERA of 0.00 and the Phillies have taken a lead in the only truly exciting first round playoff series in baseball. No chance for a sweep in this series, just one crazy game after another. I can't wait for Game Four.

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One Week to Go...

by Chris Pollay

Most MLB teams that finish the season on a hot streak usually play well in the playoffs.

With that in mind, which team would you rather be rooting for right now? TEAM A was 6-0 last week and has won 15 of their last 18 games, sweeping four of their last five series. Also, the coming week looks to include more of the same as they play the Washington Nationals four times.

TEAM B was 3-4 this past week and has seven games left. Four are against the Houston Astros, which the team is a hapless 0-4 in 2009 contests.

Obviously the answer is TEAM B since it is the Philadelphia Phillies and TEAM A is the Atlanta Braves who still trail in the National League East division by five games and the Wild Card race by 2.5 games. While they are red hot at the moment, they might not even make the playoffs.

The Phillies could go 3-4 again this week and the Braves could win all seven of their remaining games and the Phillies would still take the division and actually have a better overall win-loss record than last year’s 92-70 showing.

Still, Philly fans aren’t exactly brimming with confidence as the 2009 postseason fast approaches. After all, it is unavoidable for fans to start comparing this year’s team to last year’s champion ballclub, and of course, the team’s ability to close out games has been converted from its greatest strength to its most vulnerable weakness.

However, I am not going to discuss the bullpen today, or any of the pitching. Instead, I would like to compare the offensive numbers of the Phillies' eight starting position players this season to the numbers from last season.

The first thing that jumped to my attention is the number of stolen bases. Last season, the Phillies managed 136 successful thefts in that department, making them a very, very dangerous baserunning team. In 2009, the numbers have dropped down to 110 stolen bases (with seven games left), which is still quite resepectable, but certainly not as lethal.

On the plus side, Chase Utley already has nine more stolen bases than last year; on the flip side, Jimmy Rollins has 17 less thus far and Victorino is down 12 from their 2008 totals.

Overall, though, I believe this is a much better offensive team than its 2008 counterparts. Let’s look at some of the big numbers:

2008 Phillies (162 games)

Total Runs: 799

Total Hits: 1,407

Total RBIs: 762

Total Home Runs: 214

2009 Phillies (155 games)

Total Runs: 786

Total Hits: 1,380

Total RBIs: 757

Total Home Runs: 217

Basically, the Phillies played a little more small ball last season, although they still relied heavily on the long ball for scoring production. This season, they have already managed to eclipse their 2008 home run total.

Carlos Ruiz has five more home runs thus far and Jimmy Rollins has ten more. At this point in 2009, Victorino and Werth currently have the same number of home runs they had last year (10 and 34, respectively) and Raul Ibanez has clipped 33, tying him with Pat Burrell’s 2008 performance. Howard (43) and Utley (31) are slightly down in total home runs, but could still reach last year’s totals with a hot final week at the plate.

In terms of batting average, Ruiz, Howard and Feliz have all significantly improved this season (.253, .277 and .267), and Ibañez’s .276 is a nice step up from Burrell’s .250 average in 2008.

Werth, Victorino and Utley are hitting virtually the same (.266, .292 and .290, respectively), but Rollins is down 30 points this season (from .277 to .247). Of course, that discrepancy can be attritubed to his early season struggles. It’s safe to say that he’s now out of the slump, which is a good thing since a hot leadoff hitter is a great advantage come playoff time.

Perhaps the most startling numbers can be found in RBI totals. Ruiz jumped from 31 in 2008 to 42 so far in 2009. Rollins and Feliz both already have 17 more RBIs a piece than last season. Victorino is two better overall and Ibañez has batted in three more than Burrell did. And, keep in mind, there are still seven games left.

Still, the player who really grabs attention is Jayson Werth. He has 94 RBIs so far in 2009, making a goal of 100 quite possible. That’s a big jump from his 67 in 2008. He made a great leap of talent this season and will be a big factor in the playoffs.

As for Howard and Utley, the two big guns of the offense in 2008 (with 146 and 104 RBIs, respectively), their numbers are down but still quite strong. Howard just tied for the National League lead in the category with 137 this season and Utley is flirting with 100 again with 91 total RBIs in 2009.

The 2009 offensive team is definitely slightly better than the 2008 one, at least on paper anyway. I am a firm advocate that pitching is the most important factor in the playoffs, but I also realize that a potent offense can always keep a team in position to win.

The 2009 Philadelphia Phillies will definitely be capable of doing precisely that as they lead the National League in runs scored (786) , doubles (303), home runs (217), SLG (.448), OPS (.783), and total bases (2,394).

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Getting All Kubler-Ross On Brad Lidge

Fellow Phillies fans, I don't know about you, but Brad Lidge's blown save last night (his 11th of the season) really took the piss out of me. Hours after the Florida Marlins rallied for 2 runs in the 9th to beat the Phillies 7-6, I found myself staring blankly at nothing in particular when the reality of the situation finally, certainly struck me. This is who Brad Lidge is. For this year anyway, this is what we can expect from him. Acceptance. Watching Lidge pitch this season, I had completely worked my way through the Kubler-Ross model, more commonly known as the 5 stages of grief. You are probably familiar with them: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. So as Brad Lidge threatens to single-handedly ruin the Phillies' chances of a World Series repeat in 2009, allow me to share my grieving process with you.

Denial. Lidge blew his first save of the season on April 18, at home against San Diego. It was his 4th opportunity of the year, and he had allowed runs in 2 of the first 3 that he converted. But he was awesome, awesome in 2008. A perfect 48 of 48 in save chances and other than Cole Hamels' work in the playoffs, Lidge was perhaps the biggest reason why 2 million people got to blow off work and see the Phillies' parade down Broad Street. He wasn't going to be perfect forever and besides, he might as well get these struggles out of the way early in the season. He's still Brad Lidge. He'll be fine. Lidge blew another save in Washington on May 15th, and in the meantime mixed in some shaky outings in non-save situations. Whatever. The Phillies still won a lot of those games. Problem? What Problem? There are absolutely no problems with the back of the Phillies bullpen. I pulled out the DVDs of the 2008 World Series to watch before I went to sleep at night. Newborns on Ambien don't sleep so soundly.

Anger. On May 23rd, the Phillies were in New York to play the Yankees. I live in New York. I got tickets. Decent ones, too. It was my first time at the new Yankee Stadium. It was my birthday. Raul Ibanez homered and I got to yell RAUUUUUUULLLL!!!!!! at all the Yankees fans. John Mayberry, Jr. went deep in his major league debut. The Phillies took a 4-2 lead into the bottom of the 9th when Lidge came on to close out the game. After he walked Johnny Damon, Lidge served up the game-tying home run to A-Rod. To make matters worse, the ball landed about 10 feet from where I was sitting in rightfield. The winning run would score later that inning. On Sportscenter that evening I could be seen, in my red Phillies shirt, throwing my head back in disgust as Yankees fans in blue either reached for the ball or celebrated. Brad Lidge ruined my birthday.

Bargaining. Brad Lidge blew a save the very next day. About 2 weeks later, he blew back to back saves in Los Angeles before going on the disabled list with some knee issues. Great, the reason for all of his problems was that he was hurt. We can deal with that. He'll take some time off to get healthy and then be back as good as new. The Phillies were playing well, and nobody else in the division was emerging as a real threat. Let's take the long view here. It's still early, and a healthy Brad Lidge will make all the difference, right? If his knee isn't hurting him, whatever mechanical issues should get fixed, won't they? He can take as long as he needs, work on the things he needs to work on, clear his head, and be his old self again. Charlie Manuel will stay loyal to him. The fans will give him all the support we can possibly give. We won't even boo him! I swear! He deserves our support for all he did for us last year. We'll do anything to get that Brad Lidge back.


Depression. Lidge came off the DL in late June and promptly gave up 2 runs in a 6-1 loss in Toronto. June turned to July. Lidge looked a little better, but not really. July turned into August. Lidge's ERA still hovered around 7. This isn't getting better. This isn't going to get better. Charlie Manuel isn't going to try anything else. Brad Lidge is Charlie's closer. Bottles of Scotch are mine. Lidge blows a save in Chicago. His defense lets him down in Atlanta. Lidge blows a save in Pittsburgh. He can't even close out the Pirates! I find I need to drink heavily during close games. I beg for Pedro Martinez to close games. I beg for Brett Myers to get healthy. It turns out nobody with the Phillies will take my calls. I'm sad. My stomach is in knots. This team is too damn good to have one player ruin everything. Hopelessness overwhelms me. There are no answers. There is no god. There is no Brad Lidge. I don't want to watch this anymore.

Acceptance. But I do. I keep watching. I watch because that's who I am. That's who I've always been. I don't know what else to do on a summer night besides watch the Phillies. And when Brad Lidge hung his eleventy-billionth slider of the year to Brett Carroll, and Brett Carroll did what any Major League hitter does to a hanging slider, I knew that this is who Brad Lidge is too. 2008 is a distant and wonderful memory, and the Brad Lidge that pitched in 2008 is gone. Perhaps not for good, but for 2009. What we are left with is the best offense in baseball, some fantastic starting pitching, and a bullpen that can't get anybody out. There's no fixing this folks, it's too late. Brad Lidge is our closer. Ask Charlie Manuel. Brad Lidge is his closer. I think he says it over and over hoping that he might eventually believe it. We are headed toward a scary end to our season in October. I remember the 1993 Phillies team that had an equally scary closer by the name of Mitch Williams. We all know how that ended. I was 11 and inconsolable at the time. Now? I've prepared myself. That doesn't mean it's going to be easy. The 2009 Phillies, as good as they are, aren't winning anything with Brad Lidge pitching the 9th inning of close games. There is nothing that we as fans can do but accept it. And scream our lungs out hoping that we are wrong.


If you're into that sort of thing, you can read me more often at MikeonthePhillies.
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Howard, Hamels Heating Up at the Right Time

By Chris Pollay

In order for the Philadelphia Phillies to advance far in the postseason this year, a lot of players are going to have to play well. However, I am still clinging to a little hope that the team can repeat because the team’s two key players are heating up just as the season is winding down.

Both Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels are capable of lifting the entire team on their shoulders and carrying them for significant stretches.

Of course, Hamels did precisely that for much of the playoff run during the 2008 championship season. He was 4-0 in five starts. Pitching an average of seven innings per start, his ERA was a phenomenal 1.80 for the entire postseason.

While Cole has struggled quite a bit in 2009 (10-9 record with a 4.07 ERA), he has proven to still be the Phillies’ workhorse. So far he has racked up more innings pitched (177) than any other starter on the club. He also leads the teams in strikeouts with 157.

The most exciting statistics, however, are the ones from Hamels' last five starts (since Aug. 26). In that time, he has elevated his game considerably. Not only has he has won three of his last four decisions, he has only given up 6 earned runs in his last 37.2 innings pitched (1.45 ERA).

He is back in control of his pitches and his changeup, in particular, has been downright merciless. As a result, he has been lasting longer in his starts, which is a very good sign. His World Series MVP hangover seems to be over and I believe he’s ready to take the mound as the bonafide ace of the team come next month.

While Hamels leads the team defensively, there is no question who the offensive leader of the team is The Big Man Ryan Howard. He has been a machine throughout his short career. In the past three seasons, he has racked up home runs at a staggering pace: 58 in 2006, 47 in 2007, and 48 in 2008.

So far this season, he has 41, and if the series against the Atlanta Braves this past weekend is any indication, he’s going to end the season on a tear. His three home runs and five RBIs helped the team win two of three crucial games.

Overall this season, Ryan is batting 20 points higher than last season (.271 vs. .251) and his OPS (On Base Plus Slugging Percentage) is higher: .917 vs. .881.

He also has obtained numerous career highs this season, including: most steals (7); most doubles (34); and has tied for most triples (4) even though the Phillies still have 14 more games to play.

With Howard and Hamels peaking at the right time, the team looks to be in pretty good shape. Their magic number is down to six and they’ve won 10 of their last 13 games.

I suppose I could focus more on some of the team’s weaknesses and trouble spots (and the team certainly has its share of both), but I prefer to take the positive approach as the postseason approaches.

And, of course, with Cole Hamels on the mound and Ryan Howard in the batter’s box, there certainly is a lot to feel positive about if you’re a Phillies’ fan.

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Mets vs. Phils - Rambling Comments and Observations

This past weekend’s series against the Phillies was the cherry on the sundae for this horrific Mets season. Not only were they mathematically eliminated with Sunday night’s double-header loss, but the fatal blow was struck by none other than their former comrade, Pedro Martinez. Yes, that would be the same Pedro who was hurt the majority of the 2007 and 2008 seasons yet would not consider accepting less money from the Mets to return in 2009. The same Pedro who then took less money to go pitch midseason for our arch rivals, The Phils. How’s that for irony?


Oddly, I bear no ill-will towards Mr. Martinez. Baseball is a business and frankly, even if he had been willing to accept less money from the Mets earlier in the season, I don’t think the Mets were that interested. The truth of the matter is, with all of the injuries, even if Pedro had signed with us earlier on, I doubt his presence would have changed anything in this wretched season. And the way karma works; he probably would have gotten injured already somehow!

Pedro aside, however, the thing I find most interesting about this weekend’s Mets / Phils series was that going into it, most Mets fans expected our shell of a team to get drubbed soundly. But the truth is, they were in every game and made things pretty competitive. Ok, we all knew the Mets would ultimately end up on the losing end of the majority of the games. But unlike the Marlins series, the team actually showed up for the games - especially with all of the late inning scoring. If you are a Philly fan, you have to be a little concerned that a team without many of their regulars managed to put up this much of a fight. You also have to be concerned about your bullpen, which right now looks horrendous.

Now, I’m definitely not suggesting that the Phillies’ bullpen woes will lead to them losing the division a la the Mets of 2007 and 2008. It takes a special bunch to do what the Mets did the previous two years when they blew respective 7 and 3.5 game leads in the NL East with 17 games left on the season. But the circumstances right now for the Phils are eerily similar to those of the Mets of 2007 and 2008.

As of today, September 15th, the Phils are 7 games up on the Marlins with 19 games left to play. Three upcoming games are against Atlanta, who still has a long-shot chance at the Wild Card berth. Even scarier is that five are against the similarly Wild Card gunning Marlins, including the three that end the season. In 2007 and 2008 the Marlins were the final nails in the coffin for the Mets during their fateful season-ending matchups. Adding to the similarities are the bullpen woes of the 2007-2008 Mets and the 2009 Phils.

The fat lady has sung and has been escorted offstage for the Mets in 2009. But could she be headed to Philly for an encore performance? As a Mets fan, I don’t know. To me, bullpen woes aside, the Phillies have insane offense, play good defense, have good starting pitching and play with heart. These are factors that the Mets definitely did not get at all in 2009 or at the end of the 2007 and 2008 seasons. Truly good teams stop bad streaks from picking up too much momentum and spiraling out of control. The Mets weren’t good enough to stop the snowball effect. The Phils have 19 games left to prove they are by figuring out a solution with that bullpen. Otherwise, these last 19 games are going to be the most painful Philly fans will ever experience. Trust me on this. Been there, done this twice and it isn’t remotely fun. Read more!

The Washington Nationals Effect

By Chris Pollay

There is nothing like playing in the same division as the worst team in baseball. In fact, playing such a team 18 or 19 times throughout the season can unquestionably be the difference between playing above .500 and playing below .500.

That has largely been the case for the top three teams in the National League East. Right now, the Philadelphia Phillies are 77-57 and leading the NL East by 6 1/2 games. A large reason for this is the team's record against the Washington Nationals. They are 10-2 against them so far this season. If you take that away from their cumulative record, guess what? They become only a 67-55 team and are likely battling for their lives for a Wildcard playoff spot.

The Florida Marlins, second in the division currently with a 72-65 record, are 11-4 against the Washington Not-ionals. (In fact, they were 9-0 at one point, but have inexplicably lost four of the last six games against them.) Regardless, the Marlins would only be a .500 ballclub (61-61) without their 15 games against Washington.

The Atlanta Braves are in the same boat. If you take away their eleven contests against Washington this year, their cumulative record become 63-63. Instead, thanks to winning seven of eleven against the Nationals, the Braves boast a 70-67 record and are 8.5 games behind division leading Philly... a deep hole, to be sure, but they still have an outside shot.

While the New York Mets are pretty much completely out of the playoff picture and nobody is impressed by their 62-75 record, the team would be much, much worse if they had not played Washington twelve times (winning eight). Their record is 54-71 without those games factored in. Yikes.

Perhaps the best way to illustrate just how truly bad and inept Washington has been (and how good that badness has been for the rest of the division), is to look at the team's overall record: 47-90. That is a deplorable .343 winning percentage. At the current rate, the team will only win 56 wins in the 2009 season.

The Nats are somehow even worse against teams in their own division. They are 14-36 against the National League East, or .280! If you apply that winning percentage for a full 162-game season, the team only comes up with 45 wins (which is less than they have right now). Double yikes!

Oddly enough, the Nationals might continue to be a crucial factor in determining the playoff picture for the three remaining National League East contenders: Philadelphia, Florida and Atlanta.

Since Friday, Florida was able to gain two games on the Phillies (who seemed to discover their own personal kryptonite in the form of the Houston Astros), and it could easily have been three.

True, Brad Lidge blew his tenth save of the season on Saturday and yesterday's game was quite winnable for the Phils, but Florida was able to inch considerably closer towards the NL East title mostly because they played the Nationals in their weekend series.

The Marlins should have swept them. If not for a stunning comeback by the Nationals on Sunday (scoring three runs off two homers in the bottom of the ninth), they would have. It is precisely those type of games (i.e. against an opponent as hapless as the Nats) that teams need to win if they want to walk away with a division crown.

Now, Florida only gets to play Washington three more times in 2009. Meanwhile, the Braves will play them seven more times and the Phils will play them six more times. Those contests should easily translate to five or more wins for both of those teams in the remaining stretch run.

Contending teams simply cannot afford to let such golden opportunities slip through their fingers this late in the season.

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Billy Wagner - who wins, who loses?

Over the past few seasons, Billy Wagner has caused some controversy. Leaving the Philadelphia Phillies, with some harsh words, for the New York Mets. Continuing to spew his opinions once with the Mets and then coming back from being out almost a year recovering from Tommy John surgery to, after some wavering, waving his no trade clause and ending up on the Boston Red Sox as a relief pitcher. It was an interesting move by the Mets considering that in two appearances Wagner struck out four with a fast ball that topped 96 miles per hour and all they received for Wagner was two players to be named later.

Wagner was replaced as the Mets closer with the acquisition of Fransisco Rodriguez, arguably one of the best closers in the majors. Wagner has made it known that he wants to be a closer and is looking to break John Franco's record of the most saves thrown by a left handed pitcher. Yet, just before the deadline, he waves his no trade clause to be a set up man for Jonathan Papelbon. It seems as though Wagner has, for the time being, traded his pursuit of breaking Franco's record for a shot at a championship.

I can't say I blame the guy for wanting to win but he's 38 years old and is still recovering from a fairly major surgery. He has a shot at a ring with the Sox but not much of a chance at the record. And what happens next year? Will the Sox keep him? Surer he may get a couple of chances at a save if Papelbon pitches too many days in a row, but certainly not enough to satisfy him. Does he hope a competitive team picks him up so he can work towards the record? He's got a great arm but he comes with baggage, not that many players at this point don't, but realistically, does he have a shot at Franco's record?

I'm saying no. I don't think he can hold on long enough to break it and part of me doesn't want him to. As a life-long Met fan, I don't want a wishy-washy guy like Wagner breaking the record of a guy I cursed regularly as a kid. What do you think? Can he do it? Do you want him to? And can someone explain to me the purpose of receiving players to be names later? Does it even matter at this point? Read more!

As Cole Hamels Turns...

As the Major League Baseball regular season winds down, the Philadelphia Phillies are reaping the benefits of recently awakened Cole Hamels. Hamels, who has been mediocre at best this season has turned in two recent starts that would even make fellow lefty and former Phillies legend Steve Carlton applaud. This recent resurgence by Hamels has the Phillies and their fans wondering if the former staff ace has really turned things around and returned to his dominant ways. As the Major League Baseball regular season winds down, the Philadelphia Phillies are reaping the benefits of recently awakened Cole Hamels. Hamels, who has been mediocre at best this season has turned in two recent starts that would even make fellow lefty and former Phillies legend Steve Carlton applaud. This recent resurgence by Hamels has the Phillies and their fans wondering if the former staff ace has really turned things around and returned to his dominant ways.

About a week and a half ago, Cole Hamels shut down the Pirates to the tune of eight innings of shut out baseball, while being rewarded with a no decision as his bullpen wasted another good outing by a Phillies starter. For an encore, all Hamels did was leave the San Francisco Giants dumbfounded in pitching a two hit, complete game shut out in his next outing which left many people salivating at the possibility of having two dominant aces at the top of the rotation in fellow left-hander Cliff Lee and Hamels himself.

While taking absolutely nothing away from Hamels’ two recent gems, it must be noted that prior to them, he was having a year to forget. Coming into the game against Pittsburgh on August 26th, Hamels had amassed a measly seven wins and eight losses to go with a brutal 4.78 earned run average. He may have hit a stroke of luck, however, in catching two poor offensive teams in a row to build his confidence a bit.

The Giants, while contending for a Wildcard Title, have one of the worst offenses in all of baseball and rank fifteenth out of sixteen teams in the National League in runs scored. For a pitcher like Cole Hamels, this should be, as it was, a dominant performance. The Pirates on the other hand are ranked thirteenth out of sixteen in runs scored in the N.L. and are arguably worse than the Giants’ offense based on the fact that their team batting average is four points lower. Again, a pitcher like Hamels should dominate a team this.

While it remains to be seen whether or not Cole Hamels can pitch effectively against a better offensive ball club, like say Colorado or the Dodgers, one thing is for sure, if Cole Hamels has finally figured things out and turned his season around, it can only mean good things for the Phillies, especially since Cliff Lee is coming back down to Earth. While pulling pretty far ahead of the pack in the N.L. East with their young ace struggling all season long, it could turn into a pretty lopsided season over the final month and into the playoffs if Cole Hamels has returned to being an elite pitcher in baseball. The Phillies certainly hope that this is the case.
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One Month to Go

by Chris Pollay

After today's much-needed day off, the Philadelphia Phillies will head into September with a nice comfortable lead in the race for the National League East title.

Regardless of who wins today's matchup between the Florida Marlins and the Atlanta Braves, Philly will start the final month of the 2009 regular season with a 7 1/2 game lead with 34 games left to play.

The schedule is divided up evenly with 17 home games and 17 road games. However, it'd probably be better news if the Phils had a lot more road games left as they still boast the best road record in MLB at 41-23.

Still, anyway you slice it, the Phils are in great shape and are highly likely to make a third consecutive postseason appearance.

Of those remaining 34 games, 22 are against opponents who are currently under .500 in the win column. In fact, the Phillies have a combined 43-28 record against their remaining opponents, which include: San Francisco (3 games); Houston (8 games); Washington (6 games); New York Mets (4 games); Atlanta (3 games); Florida (6 games); and Milwaukee (4 games).

The team continues to play solidly, winning 15 games during the month of August including 14 of their last 19. The team is hot and a lot of positive signs are popping up.

Ryan Howard has been on a tear lately. Jimmy Rollins has been swinging the bat well for a long stretch. In all, four different sluggers (Howard, Utley, Werth and Ibañez) have at least 27 homers this season. That's some serious firepower.

In fact, the team still leads the National League in numerous categories: home runs, runs, total bases, SLG and OPS. The team's hitting will keep them in almost every ball game.

So, their postseason run will probably depend a lot more on pitching. The starters are an intimidating rotation. Cliff Lee finally proved he was human with his first bad start with the team. The Braves beat him up on Saturday by garnering ten hits (including three homers) and scoring six earned runs. Lee only lasted five innings.

To put that in perspective, Lee had not given up a homer in his five previous starts (all wins) and he had never lasted less than seven innings in an outing. Even more impressive, he had given up only three earned runs altogether in his five starts prior to Saturday. After the Braves lit him up, his ERA (since joining the team) jumped from .675 to 1.8, which is still quite impressive overall.

Joe Blanton, who delivered a gutsy pitching performance on Sunday to help the Phils take the series, has been consistent for a long, long time now. He hasn't given up more than three earned runs in any of his last 12 starts.

J.A. Happ has exceeded any and all expectations. The young hurler is 10 and 3 this season with a stringent 2.63 ERA. He was 3 and 1 in August and never gave up more than three runs in any of those starts.

Those three pitchers are all pitching like aces right now, which shows how deep the starting pitching is for the Phillies. After all, the MVP of the 2008 World Series is not one of their three top options at the moment. Still, don't bet against Cole Hamels if the team makes it to the postseason. He has been shaky in August, to be sure, but I believe he will lead by example in September.

Starting pitching won't be the issue for the Phillies as the season winds down. It's all about the bullpen, which, of course, has been struggling all season long. The team seems no closer to finding a secure closer, either. Brad Lidge did manage to save the game on Sunday, but his 7.03 ERA is not going to scare any teams when the Phillies hold a late lead from here on out.

Opponents will take comfort that he has blown nine saves in 36 opportunities. That's once every four chances!

Manager Charlie Manuel has one month to go to try to fix the problem, and though the Phillies should have a lot of options to consider, they are running out of time.

The team will make the playoffs. That is almost a forgone conclusion at this point. However, how far the team can go is an absolute mystery to me. Philadelphia certainly has enough potential to win a championship, but it can just as likely be beaten in the first or second round if the bullpen can't come together in time. Read more!

More Brad Lidge Talk

Before we get started here, understand something. Nobody wants to talk about Brad Lidge less than I do. It's hard enough to watch him for a few tenuous minutes if he happens to be pitching the 9th inning of that particular evening's game. At this point, you'd think that whatever problem Lidge seems to be having this year would be solved by now, one way or another. And make no mistake, Brad Lidge is a big problem.

As it is right now, the one thing that stands between the Phillies and a second consecutive World Series is the guy taking the ball in the 9th inning of close games. It's a sad thing to see, mostly because the main reason the Phillies won last year's title was the consistent domination of Bradley Lidge. But for the 2009 version of the Phillies, Lidge is the biggest, and perhaps only liability. You can make the case that the team could stand to improve their bench and that they need to do a better job of hitting with runners in scoring position, but for a club with 8 solid everyday players that is build around the 3-run homer, those problems could very well take care of themselves.

Of course, the Lidge situation could take care of itself as well, but as August gives way to September with no resolution in sight, the Phillies are running out of time. The good news is that Philly holds a comfortable 7 game lead over the Braves and Marlins in the NL East, so they can afford to use the month of September to fix the most glaring hole on their roster. Let's take a look at some of the ways the Brad Lidge situation could sort itself out.

Lidge could magically figure things out. I mean, it's not outside the realm of possibility. What's crazier: That the best closer in baseball last year would put up a 7+ ERA the following year, or that he discovers whatever it is that is failing him and throws together a great September and October. We already know by virtue of his unwavering support thus far that Charlie Manuel will give him every opportunity to succeed.

A look at Lidge's very recent history may indicate that things are not as bad as we think. The last blow up against the Pirates was pretty bad, but he was pitching for the 4th consecutive day. It's not unheard of for relievers to pitch 4 days in a row, but it's sort of seen as the threshold. You don't see anybody pitching 5 days in a row. It was a good test for Lidge against a bad team, but he failed miserably. So hopefully Charlie can chalk that one up to a lesson learned. Don't trot Lidge out there after he's pitched 3 days in a row.

Of the 3 days he pitched before the blown save in Pittsburgh, he looked very good in two of those appearances. Said appearances were sandwiched around the game that ended on Eric Bruntlett's unassisted triple play, and all three of the base runners allowed in that outing were the result of poor defense. His most recent blown save before that, August 15th in Atlanta, was also the result of poor defense (though some of that was from Lidge himself). So while we are talking about a very small sample size here, it is possible that there is enough going right for Lidge that he could find his way out of the woods any day now...

The Phillies could look outside the organization. Reports have surface that Chad Qualls and Trevor Hoffman have been put on waivers by their respective clubs in recent days. However, it is highly unlikely that either of those players would go unclaimed or even make it far enough through the process to be claimed by the Phillies. While this could change if something interesting presented itself, Ruben Amaro has indicated that the Phillies with likely fill any needs internally. Qualls and Hoffman would be good alternatives for the Phillies, but the possibility of that happening is pretty close to zero.

Pedro Martinez could close. The possibility of Pedro pitching out of the bullpen has not been raised publicly in too many places, but it is worth a shot. As a starter, Martinez has not proven to be that much of an upgrade on Jamie Moyer, who's rotation spot he replaced. Pedro's stuff has looked very good, it's just that he has not shown an ability to maintain it for more than 4 innings. Martinez certainly has the moxie to close, and if he could dial up his best stuff for an inning or so at a time he could be very effective in that role. The Phillies have not given any indication that they are ready to try Pedro out of the bullpen, but if he is unable to go more than 5 innings in his next start or two, they may think about ways he can better help the team.

Brett Myers could close. Though he has been very good so far in his rehab outings, it is still unclear how much Myers will be able to help the team this season after having hip surgery in June. But we do know that if healthy, Myers has the stuff and the mentality to succeed in the role. In fact, after pitching so well as a closer in 2007, Myers indicated that he preferred the 9th inning role, and only the acquisition of Lidge that winter moved him back into the starting rotation. Time is of the essence with Myers, as he will only have about a month to show the Phillies what he can do this season. But if he can come back healthy and Lidge continues to falter, the Phillies owe it to themselves to give Myers a shot to close out game. He very well may be their best alternative.

The Phillies could opt for a closer-by-committee. Sure, this approach is really just another way of saying that you have no closer, but is that really that far from accurate? On a few occasions this year, Charlie Manuel has opted to allow Scott Eyre begin the 9th inning when a team has a few tough lefties due up. This has worked out well when it has happened and I think Charlie should take this idea and run with it. The Phillies bullpen is full of guys with back-of-the-pen stuff- Chan Ho Park, Ryan Madson, Eyre, and Lidge, with Myers and JC Romero on the way back from injury. In the absence of better alternatives, it might be best for Charlie to play the best matchups in the 9th inning rather than default to defined roles. The downside could be that bullpen roles are defined often because relievers prefer them to be, but if they know that the 9th inning is going to be a kitchen sink situation from now on it could be effective.

Obviously, the easiest solution to all of this is for Brad Lidge to become Brad Lidge again. If that doesn't work and Brett Myers is healthy, I'd like to see him get a shot. If he is not able to contribute in that role, I'd like to see the Phillies take the committee approach and play the matchups. But one way or another a solution must be found. This Phillies team is too good to have their shot at another World Series undermined by an inability to get three outs in the 9th inning.

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Wagner, the Phillies don't want you either

On Friday, former Phillie and current Met and redneck Billy Wagner was claimed off waivers by the Boston Red Sox. Wagner finally made his 2009 debut on Thursday against the Atlanta Braves, when he pitched one inning of scoreless baseball. Wagner’s season has been delayed due to his recovery from the Tommy John surgery he had back in September of 2008.

The former Phillies closer was placed on waivers by the Mets earlier in the week, and when he was posed with the possibility of rejoining his former team, Billy couldn’t wait to say something to show his lack of intelligence. He made mention of hating his two years in Philadelphia and couldn’t bare the thought of spending another two months in the city. It’s making public comments like those that earned Billy the nickname of “rat” by former Phil Pat Burrell.

Then, upon hearing the news that the Red Sox claimed him, Wagner told the AP that he wasn’t aware of anything going on with them, but he relished the idea of joining a contender with the possibility of pitching in the World Series. I’m sorry, Billy, are the Phillies not the defending world champs and leading their division this year? So wouldn’t that make them a contender as well? Just admit that your fragile little psyche and aging arm don’t have what it takes to pitch in meaningful games in October.

When healthy, Wagner can be an effective pitcher; after all, he was regarded as an elite closer for the last seven years or so. If Billy does go to Boston, he obviously won’t be used as their closer. The Red Sox have Jonathan Papelbon for that. Wagner will be used as more of a set-up man or as a left-handed situational pitcher for late in games. This may actual pose some problems if the Phillies were to face the Red Sox in the World Series, since the Phitans lineup is loaded with left-handed batters.

The Mets have until 1pm on Tuesday to either complete a trade with the Sox, pull Wagner’s name off of waivers (which will render Billy unable to traded again this year), or simply award the former closer to Boston. Either way, if Billy lands in Beantown, they will have to pay him about $3.5 million, which in my opinion, is entirely too much to pay for a rat.
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Phillies vs Mets: The Rivalry Burns Strong

by Chris Pollay

In the last three seasons, the rivalry between the Phillies and Mets has percolated to an all-time high. The two teams have finished one-two in the NL East standings all three times.

In 2006, the Mets took the NL East by winning 97 games, and in 2007 and 2008, the Phillies usurped their rivals in dramatic late-season fashion, taking the division title by a total of one game (2007) and three games (2008) altogether.

Since the NL East was first created in 1969, the Phillies and Mets have only finished one-two in the division four times altogether, so it is odd that three of them have occurred in recent consecutive seasons.

The other time was in 1986 when the Mets barely edged out the Phillies by 21.5 games.

OK. So, the history of the two ballclubs has been seemingly uninspired intermittently for well over three decades. Heck, the two teams have never even competed against each other in the postseason.

Still, the rivalry has been a thing of beauty to witness lately. In fact, if you look at the head-to-head record of the teams during the past three seasons (2006 to 2008), the Mets hold the bare minimum of margins with a 28 and 27 overall record.

However, if you factor in this season’s ten games (Phils lead 6 to 4) between the two clubs, the Phillies have racked up 33 wins versus 32 losses in the last 65 games between them.

It simply doesn’t get any closer than that. Or does it? If you look at the two team’s 46 head-to-head games throughout 2007, 2008 and so far in 2009, the run total for both teams against each other is as follows: Phillies, 206 runs; Mets, 207 runs. Wow.

With a four-game series coming up between the Phils and Mets in New York, it seems like the stakes might be awfully low this time around. After all, the Phils lead the Mets by 14.5 games and there are two teams sandwiched right in the middle of them in the standings (the Marlins and Braves).

But don’t think for a minute that the Mets don’t want these games badly. This time the Phils will be playing for October and the Mets will be playing for pride.

Long before 2006 and the neck-and-neck division lead battles, the teams still managed to battle hard with tons of memorable games. In fact, since the 2000 season (including thus far in 2009) here is a breakdown of the team’s head-to-head rivalry: the Phils have won 88 games; the Mets have won 84. Only four games separate them in an entire decade!

To illustrate further, let’s break down the total runs scored in those games. The Phils have put 812 on the board while the Mets have put up 804. Eight measly runs separate them in 170 games!

As a way of comparison, let’s look at how the MLB’s “best rivalry” -- the Yankees and Red Sox -- have fared against each other in that same time frame (since 2000, which includes two postseason series against each other).

The Yankees have also outscored Boston by a mere eight runs in all of that time, but the win-loss record is a bit more lopsided. The Bronx Bombers have won 99 to the Red Sox’s 89 victories, a difference of ten games.

I realize nobody will forget the classic back-to-back seven game ALCS series between those two clubs in 2003 and 2004, but the numbers this decade actually suggest that the Phillies and Mets have been a little closer overall in their recent rivalry.

Hopefully, they will translate into another memorable series over the next four days.

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The Phillies Need More Closure... And Soon

By Chris Pollay

When you compare the 2009 Phillies with their 2008 Championship counterparts, it becomes apparent that last year’s team had one crucial advantage, a saving grace, if you will: closer Brad Lidge.

At times, he hoisted the entire team on his shoulders in 2008 and carried them to the finish line. This year, however, he is not the same player. He is the team’s biggest question mark as the Phils gear up to try to make a third consecutive postseason appearance.

Philly fans will never forget the immaculate numbers from last year: 41 saves in 41 opportunties in the regular season and seven saves in seven opportunities in the playoffs. Pure perfection.

His ERA for the regular season was a phenomenal 1.95 in 72 games and a merciless .96 in seven appearances during the postseason. He was virtually unhittable for the entire season and the Phillies never conceded a ninth inning lead all season long!

Think about that for a moment. Nothing gives a team more confidence than sending in a perfect closer to maintain a ninth-inning lead. That kind of confidence leads to championships.

This year, however, the closer has proved to be unstable, at best.

Lidge has struggled mightily and injuries have gotten the better of him for much of the year. With about six weeks left in the season, the right-hander has only saved 23 games in 31 opportunities (during 49 games). He also holds an 0 and 5 record, which contrasts sharply with last year’s 2 and 0 effort.

The closer you look at the Phil’s closer, the more distraught you will become by the numbers, especially if you compare them to the stats in 2008. He has already given up 35 earned runs so far this year, which is more than twice his total allowed of all of last season (he only gave up 15 earned runs in the regular season and one earned run in the postseason).

In 2008, throughout the course of pitching 69.1 regular season innings, Lidge only gave up 50 hits and two home runs. After pitching 43.2 innings this season, he has already been lit up for 52 hits and ten homers.

Clearly, the persistent pain in Lidge’s right knee has affected him more than he has let on. His numbers have spiked all season long which means his mechanics are simply not working properly and his confidence isn’t the same.

Perhaps what is most troubling (besides his 7.21 ERA) is that he has only given up three earned runs or less for an entire month once this season (June). In fact, he has already given up five in August and we’re only at the mid-point.

To put that in perspective, Lidge only allowed more than three earned runs in an entire month once all of last season (July).

The crucial weekend series against the division rival Atlanta Braves proved to be a microcosm for Lidge’s up and down 2009 season. He pitched in all three games, recording a save on Friday in nail-biting fashion, then blowing a save on Saturday before pitching the final out and earning a save again yesterday.

In all he pitched only 1 2/3 innings, yet, he gave up three hits, three walks and two runs. He also committed two errors on Saturday in a game he certainly does not want to remember.

But, here’s the reason why Philly fans should not panic: Somehow, the team has a better record now (66-49) than they had at this same point last season (62-53)... and they’re doing it without a dominant closer.

Of course, I realize a blown save in the postseason can change the momentum of an entire playoff series. Despite the shaky stats, Phils’ manager Charlie Manager is resolute in keeping Lidge in the closer role. He insists the team is completely confident with him on the mound late in the game (even if fans are not).

Since Ol’ Cholly has brought the City of Brotherly Love its first championship in 25 years, I have to give him the benefit of the doubt. He believes in players, not numbers, and his team has already proved that it knows what it takes to be champions.

Even though they have had more than their share of problems this year, the Phillies keep finding ways to win. They are ahead of last season’s pace and still look poised to make a potentially deep October run. As a fan, I have to believe Lidge will step up again and be a positive difference maker when it matters most for the team.

Guess we'll find out soon enough. This should be another interesting September. Read more!

What to do about the ninth inning?

On a day where some questions about Cole Hamels appeared to be answered, other questions concerning Brad Lidge remain. Hamels pitched six innings and gave up just two earned runs Saturday afternoon against the Atlanta Braves on his way to what should have been his eighth win of the season, but when it came time for the Phils to turn the game over Brad Lidge, he gave up two runs in the ninth, and the Phillies lost 4-3.

Saturday’s outing by Hamels put to rest (at least until his next start) questions as to where the Phillies ace falls in the rotation as the season draws closer to the playoffs. In his previous two starts, Cole has only pitched 10 innings total, and he has also given up 10 earned runs and walked six batters while only striking out six. Throughout the season, Hamels has had a few quality starts followed by a few sub-par performances. The Phillies desperately need Hamels to string together four or five consecutive good starts not only to build his confidence going into the playoffs but to also provide the Phillies with the much-needed wins necessary to clinch the division.

Saturday’s game also saw another blown save by Phillies closer Brad Lidge, his eighth of the year. This comes just a day after Lidge looked so effective in saving Friday night’s 3-2 victory for the Phillies, earning him his 22nd save of the year. Sure, you could blame the defense for why the Phils lost on Saturday, but Lidge contributed to that by committing two costly errors on the same play to allow the tying run to score and put the winning run on third with nobody out. After two walks and a strikeout, Lidge eventually gave up a single to Omar Infante to complete the Phillies’ collapse.

With the season inching ever so closely to September and October, the question as to what to do with Brad Lidge looms over the defending world champs. His sole job is to record three outs, shut the door on the opposing team, and secure victory for the team, but throughout this year, he just hasn’t been getting that done at all. Even in his saves, Lidge has looked shaky, giving up home runs and walks.

But what can the Phillies do? They already know Ryan Madson can’t be their closer based upon how he performed in that role earlier this season, and J.C. Romero is not only on the disabled list but I’m sure the Phillies don’t want to take him out of his setup role. That only leaves Brett Myers as the only other viable option to pitch the ninth inning if Lidge continues to struggle. Myers already has a history of closing with the Phillies. In 2007, Myers moved from the rotation to the bullpen to fill that much needed vacancy. Myers, however, is still on the disabled list recovering from hip surgery, and suffered another setback. He was supposed to pitch one inning for the Phillies Clearwater minor league team, but he reportedly was scratched today because he injured his eye.

As the 2009 regular season draws to an end, the Phillies are going to need an effective Cole Hamels as well as a closer in which they have confidence, whether it is Brad Lidge, Brett Myers, or someone else. The rest of the staff is pitching just fine and the bats have started to come alive again, and the Phillies need that to continue if they plan on repeating in October.
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Phillies/Braves Series Pitching Preview

The Phillies missed a prime opportunity to put some distance between themselves and their NL East competitors when they got swept by the Florida Marlins over the weekend. However, the team appears to be mostly back on track after completing a sweep of the Cubs in Chicago this afternoon. Now, the Phillies will have another opportunity to pull away from an NL east opponent when they travel to Turner Field this weekend for a three game series with the Atlanta Braves. The Braves currently sit 4.5 games (tied with Florida) behind the Phillies in the NL East. However, the Braves hold a 7-2 edge in the season series and swept the Phillies in Atlanta in their most recent series in early July. Let's take a look at the pitching matchups in an important series for both clubs.

Friday, August 14th: Joe Blanton vs. Jair Jurrjens
When Blanton allowed 3 runs in 6.2 innings in his most recent start against Florida, it represented the most runs he had allowed since June 30, coincidentally against Atlanta. Since Brett Myers went down with a hip injury and the 2008 Cole Hamels has yet to report for duty in 2009, Blanton has stepped up nicely as the number 2 starter for the Phillies behind the recently acquired Cliff Lee. In his 13 starts since May 21st, Blanton has a 2.46 ERA. He will face tough opponent in Jair Jurrjens, who in two starts against the Phillies this season has not allowed a single earned run. Jurrjens ERA has 3.01 for the season, however, he has been unable to pitch into the 6th inning in each of his last two starts.

Saturday, August 15th: Cole Hamels vs. Kenshin Kawakami
While he's shown flashes of his 2008 self at times this year, Cole Hamels has been largely inconsistent in 2009. Though he has at times been the victim of some bad luck (his batting average on balls in play is .318, 5th worst in the NL), he has also struggled with his command and his inability to develop and consistent third pitch to get hitters off of his once lethal fastball/changeup combo. In short, the league has adjusted to Hamels and Hamels has yet to make counter adjustments. Hamels was very good as recently as July 28th versus Arizona, but his last two starts have been disappointing. He will face Japanese right Kenshin Kawakami, who has steadily improved after a disastrous start. Kawakami's most recent start may have been his best of the season, as he shut out Los Angeles through 7 innings. Since a very poor month of April, Kawakami has a respectable 3.46 ERA. In his only start against Philadelphia, he gave up 2 runs in 6 innings to earn the win.

Sunday, August 16th: JA Happ vs. Javier Vazquez
JA Happ has weathered losing a tight battle for the final rotation spot in spring training, more than a month of Roy Halladay rumors, and more speculation about his starting spot as Pedro Martinez got ready to make his return to the Major Leagues. And all he's done is post an 8-2 record and a 2.75 ERA while making himself a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate. Happ bounced back from a shaky start against St. Louis on July 24th and allowed just 4 earned runs in his last 3 outings. While Happ may have just average Major League stuff, he makes up for it with excellent poise and command of his fastball. He faces veteran Javier Vazquez, who has done quite well for himself in his first season in Atlanta. Like Happ, Vazquez lacks above average stuff, but he baffles hitters with a variety of arm angles and his everything-but-the-kitchen-sink pitch selection. In his most recent start, Vazquez allowed just one run in eight innings against the Dodgers. His victory over LA was his 10th of the season, and he sports a 2.90 ERA.
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Rough Road Ahead

By Chris Pollay

Last Friday, the Philadelphia Phillies (61-48) stood poised atop the National League East with a comfortable seven-game lead ahead of Florida as the Marlins headed to the City of Brotherly Love for an important three-game series.

By the time the Marlins left, however, the huge lead shrunk down to only four games and the Phils are suddenly looking quite vulnerable.

It’s not so much that the Marlins outscored the Phillies 21 to 9 and outhit them by a stunning margin of 39 to 21 -- although that certainly helps -- but it’s the road that lies directly ahead. It's not going to be an easy one.

This week the Phillies travel on the road and face two tough ballclubs: the Chicago Cubs (58-51) and the Atlanta Braves (58-54), teams that have beat the Phillies eight of twelve times this season thus far.

And, right now, the Phils look like they would struggle to beat anybody.

After a blistering hot July, they are once again all-too-fallible, losing eight of their last eleven games, including a humiliating 12 to 3 loss to Florida on Sunday where the Phillies were so frustrated that Shane Victorino got ejected while flapping his arms in centerfield (apparently showing his displeasure for the home plate umpire's calls).

I can't blame him, really. It was a lousy day for the home team. Incidentally, 12 runs is the most the Phillies have given up to any ballclub in all of the 2009 season and the Marlins' 19 hits in the game was a season high.

Hmmm. Maybe Victorino was trying to simply fly the Hell out of there.

Still, the home losses to the Marlins are hardly an unusual occurrence this year. It is interesting to note that the Phils and Marlins seems to prefer each other’s ballparks. At Citizens Bank Park, the Marlins are 5-1 in 2009; however, when the two teams meet in Land Shark Stadium, the Phils have won all six games.

Unfortunately, this weekend was played in Philly. Thus, the Marlins exploded offensively right when they need it most. The team batted 39 for 116 (.336) compared to a struggling Phillies club that only hit 21 of 99 (.212).

Helping the Marlins bat like a team of Triple Crown Winners was the Phils’ sputtering starting pitching staff, which didn’t pitch well (4.76 ERA) or deep. They only lasted 17 innings in the series, taxing the bullpen to come in for ten innings in three days. The late inning relievers were simply awful, giving up eleven earned runs and an ERA of 9.9.

Hopefully, the team will enjoy the day off and rest up a bit as clearly fatigue is catching up with them.

The Phillies need to step up this month as they face National League East opponents ten times in the month's remaining 19 games. The club is 25-18 against its own division this season, but if you take out the games against the basement-dwelling Nationals, they are only 15-16.

That's simply not good enough if you want to win the division crown.

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Goodbye Moyer, How Quickly We Forget...

Lately, there has been a lot of talk about the Phillies’ starting pitching rotation. Everyone wants to know who will remain in the rotation and who will go to the bullpen once future hall-of-famer Pedro Martinez is ready for the big leagues. According to local radio stations and Internet message boards, popular opinion seems to be that Jamie Moyer should be the one that is bumped from the rotation. Lately, there has been a lot of talk about the Phillies’ starting pitching rotation. Everyone wants to know who will remain in the rotation and who will go to the bullpen once future hall-of-famer Pedro Martinez is ready for the big leagues. According to local radio stations and Internet message boards, popular opinion seems to be that Jamie Moyer should be the one that is bumped from the rotation.

Sure, Moyer’s start Tuesday night start against Colorado was a rough one, but before that, in the entire month of July, he had a 3.30 earned run average and a four and one record. Most teams would give the world for their fifth starter to put up those kinds of numbers.

Granted, Jamie Moyer struggled throughout the first half of the season, but other than a small hiccup earlier this week, seems to have righted the ship in the second half. Not even supposed “Ace” Cole Hamels has put together a stretch like Moyer did in July this entire season. Looking at the numbers and the logic, it simply makes more sense to put a guy like recently signed Pedro Martinez into the bullpen than it does a guy who is putting up some pretty stellar second half numbers like Moyer.

Think about it. Pedro hasn’t even thrown a Major League pitch this year and by all accounts, probably couldn’t go any more than five innings in a game while Moyer, in his last ten starts, has gone at least six innings in more than half of them. Pedro hasn’t even thrown more than eighty-two pitches this season, a feat that he’s only accomplished once. Not to mention the fact that Martinez even volunteered to pitch out of the bullpen if needed.

On a club that has been as fair as possible to everyone from Chan Ho Park, who no one actually thought would last as a starter, to Brad Lidge, who if not for a perfect 2008 season would be relegated to a mop up role and possibly booed out of Philadelphia, it seems completely ridiculous to simply bump Moyer because he had a shaky first half, especially since he’s been so solid of late.

To make a rash decision based on one poor performance, three nights ago, would be completely unfair to a guy who has done nothing but give everything he has to the Phillies and their fans, including winning sixteen games in 2008 to help lead the team to only it’s second world championship in franchise history. How quickly we forget.
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Let's Not Over-Think This Pedro Thing

So common sense prevailed and Phillies GM Ruben Amaro announced today that JA Happ will remain in the Philadelphia rotation for the remainder of the season. It's not that I doubted the Phillies would do the right thing (given their recent track record, they deserve the benefit of the doubt), it's just that there had been a lot of crazy ideas going around about what will happen once Pedro Martinez is ready to pitch in the big leagues again.

While the Phillies have assured Happ that his spot in the rotation is safe, they have not yet decided how they will sort the rest of the rotation out. Obviously it comes down to Jamie Moyer and Pedro for the 5th slot. There is some talk that the team could go with a six man rotation, but I'm not sure I like this idea. While the Phillies are in good shape as far as the division is concerned, a lot can happen between now and October (just ask a Mets fan). With a six man rotation, you are only limiting the starts of guys like Cliff Lee and Joe Blanton, and in a pennant race you want your best guys out there as often as possible. The Phillies have also discussed doing some "creative" things with the rotation, keeping Lee and Blanton on normal rest and pushing others back here and there. While I give the team credit for trying, I don't like this idea either. Baseball players are creatures of habit. Screwing with their normal preparation routines could end up being more of a hindrance come playoff time if guys aren't used to dialing it up they way they normally do. Also, if the playoffs were today, neither Moyer nor Pedro would be starting a postseason game. Why make all these concessions for guys that ultimately don't matter?

If they really wanted to, I wouldn't necessarily have a problem with the Phillies replacing Jamie Moyer with Pedro when the time comes, but I'm not sure that Martinez will be a whole lot more effective than Moyer as a starting pitcher. At the very least we can safely assume that Martinez won't pitch more innings in his starts than Moyer would. But for all of his warts, Moyer isn't nearly the health risk that Pedro is, and under the right circumstances (generous plate umpire, overly aggressive hitters) the old man can still be very good. Sure, Moyer blows up a little more often than Phillies fans would like, but how do we know it wouldn't be the same story with Pedro? Lost in his gaudy strike out numbers in his minor league starts (a product of throwing changeups and breaking balls to hitters who are mostly still in the minors because they haven't figured out how to hit those pitches) is the fact that Pedro is still giving up a few more runs than you'd like to AA and AAA teams. So if it's a wash, I'd prefer to stay loyal to the guy who has been a major contributor to the organization for three years over the guy who signed late hoping to ride coattails to another World Series title.

To me, the solution seems clear. Put Pedro in the bullpen. Not only because he may not deserve to start, but because he could actually be fantastic as a reliever. If his stuff is as good as the Phillies say it is in his rehab starts, and we know that Pedro's arm is fragile and he won't be eating innings no matter how good he is, why not have him pitch out of the bullpen? If he only has to muster his best stuff for an inning or two at a time, how good could he be? And who cares that the Phillies signed him as a starter? Pedro knew that things could change when he signed on, and he has expressed a willingness to do whatever is necessary. Well things changed. The Phillies don't need him in the rotation right now, they need him in the bullpen. Instead of wasting a bunch of time figuring out how work Pedro into the rotation, why not do what is best for the team? Sometimes the right answer is the most obvious. Get Pedro Martinez ready for the bullpen.

You can read me more often at MikeonthePhillies.com

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NY Mets 2009 - DNR Now and Save 2010

After losing three of four to the putrid Arizona Diamondbacks this past weekend, it is pretty safe to say that any hopes of a Mets wildcard berth have pretty much petered out the same way this entire season has. With only 57 regular season games left, the Mets find themselves five games under .500, ten games out of first place and eight games out of the Wildcard with seven teams ahead of them. Though mathematically still alive, let’s face it, folks, our Metsies are currently on life support along with their beleaguered GM and possibly their manager. It’s time to pull the plug and look towards 2010.

As everyone knows, injuries to so many starting players and even key back-up players played a huge role in this disappointing season. At this point, I see no real reason to even try to rush Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran back so they can play at 80% and possibly cause more damage to their fragile selves. Why not shut them down now, let both rest for 2010 and err on the side of caution? Or if Beltran does indeed need that micro fracture surgery, do it now and get it over with so that the ten months it takes to heal does not kill all of next season for him. In fact, if surgery is what he definitely needs, this should have already been done weeks ago after it was deemed the bone bruise was not improving.

As for Delgado, Wagner and Putz, if these players can come back for 2009, by all means they should. As everyone knows, both Delgado and Wagner will be free agents after this year, and Putz is playing for his option year. All three want to come back and prove they are healthy so that the cash bells start ringing in the off-season. This is a can’t lose situation for the Mets. If they can help out, that’s fantastic. If they don’t, well, it was great knowing you, good luck in the future.

The one question mark for an injured players return this year is John Maine. Ah, my adorable Johnny Maine…so young and fragile yet with so much upside...Should the Mets try to rush him back this season just to test that fatigued shoulder and see if they should offer another contract for next year, or do you let him rest, offer a super cheap but incentive-laden deal for 2010 and take your chances? Or do you just walk away for 2010?

Given the amount of money this team has wasted on bad contracts like good old Ollie P’s, I would try my best to keep Maine a Met for 2010. When healthy, he has proven to be pretty reliable for a quality start and has even shown flashes of dominance. I’d trust a healthy Maine with the ball any day over Ollie. Plus, he’s young, seems to have a good team attitude, he’s adorable (worth repeating) and can likely be had for cheap. For a million / million and a half, if it doesn’t work out, you cut your losses and move on. The Mets would probably have an easier time trading a semi-ineffective, reasonably paid John Maine than they would have unloading good old Ollie without having to pay part of his contract.

Now, with all of this being said, I can almost write the script for the rest of the Mets 2009 season…As Murphy’s Law always has it, just as fans completely give up hope and start looking ahead to 2010, this team will give us some small reason to believe that they are not actually dead in the water. Maybe they’ll pull off a string of wins against St. Louis and on their upcoming road trip. Maybe their beards will grow to ZZ Top-like proportions and they’ll make it to .500…It’s okay…Mets fans are like Charlie Brown…we’re used to the football being pulled away at the last second. This year, though, we know that’s how 2009 will end. We’ll be good sports and kick through but we won’t land flat on our backs. It’s up to the Mets front office and how they deal with Reyes and Beltran to make sure 2010 doesn’t begin that way. Read more!

The Hottest July in Recent Record

By Chris Pollay

It’s a good time to be a Philadelphia Phillies fan.

After all, the defending MLB champions are currently leading the National League East comfortably with a five-game lead. True, they just dropped three of four to the San Francisco Giants, but that was the first series the team has lost since one with the Atlanta Braves that concluded on July 2nd.

The team is only going to get better after recently upgrading its roster, adding 2008 Cy Young Winner Cliff Lee, who only gave up four hits and one run in a complete game, his first outing with the Phils. Also of note, he is 4-0 in his last four starts including three complete games with an ERA of 1.32 in that time.

The future indeed looks secure, especially if the recent past is any indication. The team just finished one of its hottest months of July in recent history, carving out an impressive 20-7 (.741) record.

To put that in perspective, consider this: the last time the Phillies won 20 games in one month was back in May of 2001 when the team went 20-8 (.714).

Last month, the team strung together win streaks of four twice and ten once. They only lost back-to-back games twice during the entire month. In that time, the Phillies outscored opponents by a stunning margin of 153 to 97. Incidentally, that was the most runs scored and fewest runs allowed by the ballclub in any month this year.

In fact, the last time the Phils gave up fewer than 100 runs in an entire month (featuring at least 25 games) was June of 2003.

Philadelphia was so dominant that it outscored its opponents by 56 runs in 27 games for an average of more than two runs a game! It’s amazing what can happen when a baseball team clicks on both offense and defense at the same time.


Everybody Pitching In

As of today, the Phillies’ overall team ERA is at 4.37. However, for the month of July, the team tallied a cumulative 3.22 ERA over the course of 246 innings pitched. Only 88 of the 97 runs given up were earned.

Philadelphia pitched three shoutouts and gave up only two runs or less 14 times (and were 14-0 in those games, not too surprisingly). The best aspect about it all, however, was that it was a complete team effort.

Here are some of the starting pitching performances of the month:

Joe Blanton (3-0): 29.2 IP, 22Ks, 1.21 ERA

Cole Hamels (3-1): 37 IP, 29Ks, 4.38 ERA

J.A. Happ (2-2): 40 IP, 31Ks, 2.93 ERA

Cliff Lee (1-0 as a Philly): 9 IP, 6Ks, 1.0 ERA

Rodrigo Lopez (3-1): 27.1 IP, 17Ks, 3.62 ERA

Jamie Moyer (4-1): 30 IP, 15Ks, 3.3 ERA

The Phillies' hurlers were simply much more consistent than they have been the rest of the year, giving up only 65 walks for the month compared to striking out 190 batters. Although, the team did continue with one of its scary statistics: home runs allowed. The team gave up 27 altogether in July, or an average of one a game.


Hitting on All Cylinders

Of course, a team can give up one home run a game if it manages to outhit its opponents thoroughly.

The team smashed 35 homers in July and 247 hits altogether (91 of which were extra base hits). The team batted a cumulative .259 for the month and hit in double digits eleven different times!

Overall, 145 of the 153 runs the team scored were batted in. The team did continue to strikeout often, though, but did show reasonable patience by earning 116 walks (51 more than their opponents in that time).

Like the Phillies’ pitching last month, the team’s hitting was also a result of contributions from almost everybody. Here’s a breakdown of some of the big numbers:

Jayson Werth: 7 HR, 23 RBIs

Ryan Howard: 6 HR, 18 RBIs

Chase Utley: 6 HR, 18 RBIs

Jimmy Rollins: 4 HR, 19 RBIs

Raul Ibañez: 4 HR, 16 RBIs

Shane Victorino: 3 HR, 14 RBIs

Pedro Feliz: 1 HR, 13 RBIs

One hot month can make all the difference in a pennant race. The Phils were actually tied for first place on July 2nd, but by the end of the month they secured a comfortable six-game lead despite playing 13 straight games at the end of July.

Perhaps the brightest statistic, however, is that the team remembered how to win in its own ballpark, accruing a 14-3 home record for the month, giving them an overall record of 27-25. Their home record was an astonishing 13-22 before the start of July.

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