By Chris Pollay
It has been a painful month for Phillies’ fans, to be sure. Calling it a June Swoon is too kind. It’s more like a Friggin’ Free Fall.
After starting the month on a 4-0 tear, Philadelphia proceeded to lose 14 of their next 19 games as opponents treated the pitching staff’s fastballs like oversized piñatas. With one more game left to play this month, Philly has posted an overall June record of 11-14. Even if they win tomorrow, they will still end up with a cumulative losing record for the entire month.
That’s no reason to sound the alarm just yet, but the Phils do need to shut off the snooze button.
Despite recent evidence to the contrary, the Phillies have been irrefutably consistent for a long time now. During 2008 and 2009, the ballclub played ten months of regular season and post-season baseball and accumulated winning records during eight of them*.
Both exceptions occurred in June. That just can’t be coincidence.
(*If you are a stickler for details, Philadelphia did technically have a losing record in another month in 2008 when they opened their season one day prior to April. Thus, they ended up 0-1 for March.)
It’s hard not to believe the team is a victim to the infamous June Swoon that so often plagues Major League Baseball franchises. However, statistical evidence of last year also suggests the Phils may have a July Revive coming up now.
The Phils have posted 15-10 records in July during the previous two baseball seasons. So, here’s hoping they can win 60% of their games this July, as well.
Take a look at the breakdown of the team’s month-by-month win-loss records for the past two seasons:
April 2009: 11-9
May 2009: 17-11
June 2009: 11-14 (With one game still to play.)
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March 2008: 0-1
April 2008: 15-12
May 2008: 17-12
June 2008: 12-14
July 2008: 15-10
Aug. 2008: 16-13
Sept. 2008: 17-8
Oct. 2008: 11-3 (Postseason)
What stands out to me is how similar the records are month by month. The Phils were three games over .500 in April of 2008 and two games over .500 this April.
In May, the team won the same number of games in 2008 as it did in 2009, suffering only one more loss last season.
In recent history, June has proven undeniably bad, of course, but if last July, August and September are any indication of how the team plays late in the year, Philadelphia should inevitably revert to their winning ways shortly. (They certainly seem to get hungrier in the second half of the season.)
Manager Charlie Manuel’s recent closed-door meeting on Friday may have provided the spark that will light a midsummer fire underneath the ballclub.
Interestingly enough, there is a positive by-product to all of the losing of late. The Phillies have learned that the division race is theirs to win or lose.
The last time the Phils took over first place in the NL East was on May 30th. They have remained in that spot throughout the entirety of June despite trying to sabotage that lead in every conceivable way.
Of course, a large reason for this is that the Mets have solemnly swooned their way through June as well, posting an even worse 9-16 record leading up to today.
Monday, June 29, 2009
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It certainly is weird to see the pattern from the past few seasons. I think that part of the reason the Phillies have also struggled through June is that June is the month where Interleague Play occurs. The team has not faired too well the last few seasons playing against the American League.
ReplyDeleteIt certainly is not time to push any panic buttons because now it's back to playing the National League, and if we go by history, it will show that the Phillies will get their act together and the Mets will find a way to crumble in the end.
You are definitely right about the Interleague games bringing down the Phils' June W-L record. I will touch on that topic briefly next week, actually. The American League has beaten up the Phillies pretty badly, but fortunately they have done the same to the Mets.
ReplyDeleteTo be honest with you, I'm more concerned with the Marlins at the moment than the Mets, largely because the Mets like to stumble through September so much.
I honestly don't think the Marlins have what it takes to contend down the stretch. They are just winning games as the Mets and Phillies crumble apart. The team that scares me the most right now is ironically the Phillies. They actually beat themselves better than any other team in the division.
ReplyDeleteToo true. The Phillies can definitely be their own worst enemy.
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