The 2009 National League Division Series will feature two teams that pack a lot of punch at the plate. The Phillies lead the National League with runs scored (820), home runs (224) total bases (2,493) and SLG (.447). The Rockies placed second in the same categories: runs scored (804), home runs (190), total bases (2,378) and SLG (.441).
The Phillies, as usual, relied heavily on the long ball this season. Ryan Howard delivered another monster performance with 45 HRs (3rd best in MLB) and 141 RBIs (which tied Milwaukee's Prince Fielder for the most in MLB).
Also providing power in the Phillies' lineup was Jayson Werth with 36 HRs (ranked 7th in the NL) and 99 RBIs; Raul Ibañez with 34 HRs (ranked 9th in the NL) and 93 RBIs; and Chase Utley with 31 HRs and 93 RBIs. In fact, Philadelphia featured six players with at least 75 RBIs.
The Rockies proved to be potent, too, although they only had four players with that many RBIs: Troy Tulowitzki had 92 RBIs (and a team-high 32 homers); Brad Hawpe and Todd Helton each racked up 86 RBIs; and Clint Barmes tallied in 76.
The edge in the hitting department clearly goes to the Phillies, but the Rockies will be the most dangerous offense they will face in the National League playoffs.
Interestingly enough, the Rockies proved to be masters of patience and small ball, as well. The team lead the National League in two revealing categories: sacrifice flies (60) and base on balls (660).
The team also draws a lot of strength from one of the game's best and purest hitters over the past 13 seasons. During his career, Todd Helton has clipped a cumulative .328 batting average with 2,134 hits and 1,202 total RBIs.
This season, the future Hall-of-Famer batted .325, which was good enough to place 4th overall in the NL. He is the best hitter in the series.
The Phillies proved to be a much more potent baserunning squad with 119 stolen bases in 2009 (ranked 2nd in the NL). Rollins stole 31. Shane Victorino had 25. Utley had 23 and Werth had 20. The Rockies only have two significant basestealing threats: Dexter Fowley (27) and Troy Tulowitzki (20).
In terms of pitching the series is almost even with the Phillies holding the edge in the starting rotation and the Rockies barely boasting a better bullpen (largely because the starting closer position for the defending champs is a big question mark).
Overall, Philadelphia accrued a better team ERA: 4.16 to 4.24. The teams were virtually even in strikeouts (Colorado had 1,154 and Philly had 1,153), but the Phillies gave up 39 less walks and were ranked 2nd in the NL in that category with 489. On the flip side, Colorado gave up 48 less home runs in 2009.
Colorado does feature an impressive batch of starting pitchers: Ubaldo Jimenez (15-12, 3.47 ERA, 198 strikeouts), Jorge de la Rosa (16-9, 4.38 ERA, 193 strikeouts), Jason Marquis (15-13, 4.04 ERA, 115 strikeouts), Jason Hammel (10-8, 4.33 ERA, 133 strikeouts) and Aaron Cook (11-6, 4.16 ERA, 78 strikeouts).
The Phillies starters have pitched a lot less innings than their Colorado counterparts, but a large reason for that is because Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez were added to the team late in the season.
Regardless, the late additions have settled in nicely and have given the team a formidable "big five" rotation: Joe Blanton (12-8, 4.05 ERA, 163 strikeouts), Cole Hamels (10-11, 4.32 ERA, 168 strikeouts), J.A. Happ (12-4, 2.93 ERA, 119 strikeouts), Cliff Lee (7-4, 3.39 ERA, 94 strikeouts) and Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.63 ERA, 50 strikeouts).
Forget the numbers, though. The Phillies have a World Series MVP (Hamels) and two former Cy Young winners (Lee and Martinez) on the roster. That makes for a better starting rotation no matter how you slice it.
That leads us to the bullpen, which is the Phillies' biggest weakness. How much will we see of Brad Lidge (7.21 ERA and eleven blown saves) during the series? Only Charlie Manuel knows. If Lidge does pitch, can he rise to the challenge like last season? It's hard to imagine that happening since his confidence has nosedived all season long.
So, the advantage in the closing department clearly goes to Colorado. Huston Street had 35 saves in 2009 (ranked 3rd in the NL) and was consistent with an impressive 3.06 ERA. Also of note, he only had two blown saves this year.
Overall, the Rockies converted 73.8% of their save opportunities, which ranked 3rd in the NL. The Phillies weren't as bad as they seemed. They converted 66.7% of their saves, which ended up 7th in the NL overall.
With the exception of the closing role, however, the Phillies have a more experienced and versatile bullpen which will give Manuel a lot of leeway in tight situations.
Other factors will come into play, as well. The Phillies were only 45-36 at home this season, but the playoffs are a different animal. The home field advantage will come into play, as will defense.
Philadelphia committed only 76 errors this season and held the 2nd best fielding percentage in the NL with .987. They also threw out base stealers 28% of the time while Colorado only threw out 19%.
Expect a much different outcome from the 2007 playoff series between these teams. Colorado may have swept the Phils in three games, but this year they are facing the defending champs and I suspect Philadelphia will wake up and rise to the occasion.
Final Result: Phillies in four games.
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