Let's Not Over-Think This Pedro Thing

So common sense prevailed and Phillies GM Ruben Amaro announced today that JA Happ will remain in the Philadelphia rotation for the remainder of the season. It's not that I doubted the Phillies would do the right thing (given their recent track record, they deserve the benefit of the doubt), it's just that there had been a lot of crazy ideas going around about what will happen once Pedro Martinez is ready to pitch in the big leagues again.

While the Phillies have assured Happ that his spot in the rotation is safe, they have not yet decided how they will sort the rest of the rotation out. Obviously it comes down to Jamie Moyer and Pedro for the 5th slot. There is some talk that the team could go with a six man rotation, but I'm not sure I like this idea. While the Phillies are in good shape as far as the division is concerned, a lot can happen between now and October (just ask a Mets fan). With a six man rotation, you are only limiting the starts of guys like Cliff Lee and Joe Blanton, and in a pennant race you want your best guys out there as often as possible. The Phillies have also discussed doing some "creative" things with the rotation, keeping Lee and Blanton on normal rest and pushing others back here and there. While I give the team credit for trying, I don't like this idea either. Baseball players are creatures of habit. Screwing with their normal preparation routines could end up being more of a hindrance come playoff time if guys aren't used to dialing it up they way they normally do. Also, if the playoffs were today, neither Moyer nor Pedro would be starting a postseason game. Why make all these concessions for guys that ultimately don't matter?

If they really wanted to, I wouldn't necessarily have a problem with the Phillies replacing Jamie Moyer with Pedro when the time comes, but I'm not sure that Martinez will be a whole lot more effective than Moyer as a starting pitcher. At the very least we can safely assume that Martinez won't pitch more innings in his starts than Moyer would. But for all of his warts, Moyer isn't nearly the health risk that Pedro is, and under the right circumstances (generous plate umpire, overly aggressive hitters) the old man can still be very good. Sure, Moyer blows up a little more often than Phillies fans would like, but how do we know it wouldn't be the same story with Pedro? Lost in his gaudy strike out numbers in his minor league starts (a product of throwing changeups and breaking balls to hitters who are mostly still in the minors because they haven't figured out how to hit those pitches) is the fact that Pedro is still giving up a few more runs than you'd like to AA and AAA teams. So if it's a wash, I'd prefer to stay loyal to the guy who has been a major contributor to the organization for three years over the guy who signed late hoping to ride coattails to another World Series title.

To me, the solution seems clear. Put Pedro in the bullpen. Not only because he may not deserve to start, but because he could actually be fantastic as a reliever. If his stuff is as good as the Phillies say it is in his rehab starts, and we know that Pedro's arm is fragile and he won't be eating innings no matter how good he is, why not have him pitch out of the bullpen? If he only has to muster his best stuff for an inning or two at a time, how good could he be? And who cares that the Phillies signed him as a starter? Pedro knew that things could change when he signed on, and he has expressed a willingness to do whatever is necessary. Well things changed. The Phillies don't need him in the rotation right now, they need him in the bullpen. Instead of wasting a bunch of time figuring out how work Pedro into the rotation, why not do what is best for the team? Sometimes the right answer is the most obvious. Get Pedro Martinez ready for the bullpen.

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