The Prospects in a Potential Trade for Roy Halladay

The Roy Halladay to Philadelphia rumors have been reported just long enough and make just enough sense that Phillies fans have taken to spending large chunks of the day scouring the internet for the latest rumors and keeping MLB Network on mute in the background while they work in hopes that news will break that a certain Canadian team's ace is looking at real estate in the City of Brotherly Love. Or is that just me? Anyway, I do not know a single Phillies fan who does not want Roy Halladay in red pinstripes. I do, however, know a few Phillies fans with concerns about what it would cost to acquire Halladay. There are concerns that mortgaging the future for a 32 year old pitcher who is only signed through 2010 may not be worth it. I am squarely in the do-whatever-it-takes-to-land-Halladay camp, but whichever side of the fence you fall on, lets take a look at the prospects most likely to be involved in a potential deal and the issues surrounding them.

Kyle Drabek/JA Happ. I pair these two pitchers together because I believe that one will have to be included in a Halladay deal, but not both. If Toronto insists on getting both pitchers, I don't think Philadelphia will pull the trigger. The question then, is which pitcher would you rather deal? It's a question I've gone back and forth on since the Halladay rumors began. Drabek is a 21 year old potential ace with a mid-90's fastball and a curveball that makes scouts drool. But when will that potential be realized? He could be in the major leagues by next season, but it is highly doubtful that he would be ready to dominate that soon. He would likely be treated with kid gloves, potentially starting out in the bullpen or with an innings limit for the season. So by the time he is ready to start winning Cy Youngs, the Phillies core will be aging and/or the team could be retooling. The Phillies window of opportunity is now. Is Drabek ready for now?

Meanwhile, Happ is a potential Rookie of the Year candidate who is getting major league hitters out right now. He doesn't have the stuff or the ceiling that Drabek has, but he is a smart, poised kid who knows how to pitch. If the point is to win now, and Happ is helping the Phillies win now, why would you want to trade him? The possibility exists that Happ is pitching over his head right now. What happens in a month, when teams have seen him a few times and scouts have extensive reports on him? Rare is the young pitcher who doesn't struggle at some point. What happens if Happ's struggles come in September and October, and the Phillies missed an opportunity to trade a pitcher who profiles as a #3/4 starter when his value was as high as it would ever be, and instead traded a guy who could be a future ace? It's a tough question to answer, but at this point, if it has to be one or the other, I'm trading Happ. The only reason is that I think the Phillies have enough depth in the rotation to make it work. Hamels/Halladay/Blanton/Moyer/Pedro still gets it done in the playoffs. Normally, you don't want to subtract from the major league roster of a contender, but this is not a normal situation. This is Roy Halladay.

Michael Taylor/Dominic Brown. This is another one but probably not both situation for these two highly regarded outfield prospects. Whether the Phillies would balk at trading both players I don't know, but it wouldn't really make sense for the Blue Jays, with some organizational depth in the outfield, to take both when they have other holes to fill. Taylor has more power than Brown, and is closer to the majors. But Brown is the higher rated prospect, and if the Jays are taking the long view on their rebuilding project, they might prefer Brown. Brown is a phenomenal athlete, and profiles as a centerfielder, while Taylor is most certainly a corner outfielder. Again, I think Toronto will end up with one guy or the other. If given a choice, I think I would prefer to deal Brown. I realize he is the higher rated prospect, but if the Phillies can bite the bullet here, where they have some depth, and it saves them from depleting other parts of the farm system, then I think it is a wise move. Besides, I happen to think that Michael Taylor is quite underrated and could probably hit in the majors right now if the need arose. I could see him stepping into rightfield when Jayson Werth's contract expires after the 2010 season. Also, the Phillies have a speedy centerfield prospect by the name of Anthony Gose who could be the future of the position.

Jason Donald. Marco Scutaro's contract expires after this season, and the Blue Jays would like a prospect who could play shortstop for them in 2010. Jason Donald could fit the bill. Blocked at short and second base in Philadelphia, the Phillies tried Donald at third during the spring with mixed results. It was thought that Donald could replace Pedro Feliz at the position in 2010. However, Feliz's improvement with the bat and his usually steady defense for a team without a lot of strikeout pitchers make it more likely that his option will be picked up for next season and there will not be a spot for Donald. Donald has struggled to hit and stay healthy in AAA this season, but has shown recent improvement on both fronts. He's the closest thing the Phillies have to a major league shortstop not named Jimmy Rollins, so if a Halladay deal goes down, Donald will almost certainly be in it.

Lou Marson. Marson is another major league ready prospect the Blue Jays may have interest in. However, Toronto already has a top catching prospect in their organization by the name of JP Arencibia. But Arencibia's future may be at first base or DH, and if the Jays feel that is the case, they may have interest in Marson. The Blue Jays may covet 20 year old Travis D'Arnaud more, and if a catcher goes to Toronto for Halladay I think it will be D'Arnaud.

Carlos Carrasco/Jason Knapp. If we assume the deal so far includes Happ or Drabek, Brown or Taylor, and Donald, we'd have to figure the Jays would get at least one more pitcher in return. Again, I think they could get Carrasco or Knapp, but not both. Knapp is the higher rated prospect (this was not true as recently as last year, when Carrasco was the organization's top prospect), but Carrasco is closer to the major leagues. Knapp, just 18 years old, throws in the high 90's with acceptable breaking stuff. With his fastball, he might eventually be better off is a closer, especially if he only develops one offspeed pitch and not two or three. Carrasco has fantastic stuff himself, but he has struggled this season in AAA. Still, If I had to choose which one to trade, I would trade Knapp. At 18, there is so much margin for error. He has great stuff, but can he pitch? Could he be a major league starter? How soon? What if he blows his arm out (to be fair, a question you could ask of any pitcher, including Halladay)? I say let the Blue Jays deal with the question marks. I believe that the troubles that Carrasco is having in the minors will teach him the maturity to deal with the struggles that will surely come in the big leagues. You have to remember, Carrasco is a 22 year old kid with stuff so good he never had to do anything with it other than throw it right over the plate. In AAA, against more seasoned hitters, he is learning the value of location and command. It's not that I wouldn't trade Carrasco, it's just that in this scenario that I completely made up, I prefer to deal the guy with more unknowns.

Joe Savery/Antonio Bastardo/Johan Flande/Drew Carpenter/Vance Worley. These pitchers all project to be major league pitchers at some point, but it is doubtful they will be stars. We are talking #4/5 starters and relievers here. The only exception might be Bastardo, who showed a lot in his time in Philly, but also showed he had a long way to go before he got hurt. However, because he is hurt at the moment, it is doubtful that Toronto will ask for him in a trade. This is a very good thing. The rest of these guys could be used to compliment a Halladay package. in fact, if the Phillies stand firm and better offers don't emerge, and Toronto realizes that the best offer they are going to get is coming right now and not in the offseason, the Phillies may be able to get away with trading two or three of these guys instead of someone like Happ or Carrasco.

So in the end, if my scenario is even close to correct, the Phillies would be giving up a lot. But they would also have enough left to plug holes and sustain themselves while competing for the World Series for the next 2-3 years. By then, they will have had at least two more draft classes with which to replenish the minor league system. So as far as I'm concerned, yes, Roy Halladay is worth it. No matter what the price.

You can read me more often at MikeonthePhillies.